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[10/08/09 - 11:47 PM] The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season: #9 - Most Shows Lose 25% of Their Debut Audience By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC) |
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Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.
Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our annual feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...
9. Most shows lose 25% of their premiere audience by week four.
It shouldn't be too much of a surprise to learn that, for the most part, a new show's audience will fade from week to week. After all, television is weekly commitment and not everyone who watches a show's premiere will be in it for the long haul. But how large is that exodus? It turns out after the first week, 11% of viewers on average don't come back for round two. By the third week, nearly 22% of those initial premiere viewers are gone. Ultimately by a show's fourth installment, 25% of that initial audience will have tuned out. Take a look at how each new show last season fared with each successive week (the number in parenthesis denotes the rank of that week's respective change):
| series (network) | week 1 | week 2 | week 3 | week 4 |
| mentalist, the (cbs) | 15.6 | -0.64% (7) | -4.49% (6) | -1.92% (6) |
| lie to me (fox) | 12.4 | -1.61% (9) | 4.84% (2) | -10.48% (10) |
| eleventh hour (cbs) | 11.4 | 4.39% (4) | 3.51% (3) | -1.75% (5) |
| life on mars (abc) | 11.3 | -27.43% (39) | -30.09% (31) | -28.32% (24) |
| surviving suburbia (abc) | 11.2 | -13.39% (20) | -11.61% (9) | -19.64% (13) |
| worst week (cbs) | 10.9 | -17.43% (25) | -19.27% (18) | -10.09% (9) |
| castle (abc) | 10.8 | 1.85% (5) | -15.74% (15) | -15.74% (12) |
| superstars of dance (nbc) | 10.6 | -8.49% (13) | -32.08% (35) | -38.68% (32) |
| harper's island (cbs) | 10.2 | -23.53% (35) | -31.37% (33) | -54.90% (38) |
| southland (nbc) | 9.9 | -3.03% (11) | -18.18% (17) | -32.32% (28) |
| fringe (fox) | 9.1 | 46.15% (2) | 3.30% (4) | 8.79% (3) |
| homeland security usa (abc) | 7.8 | -23.08% (34) | -28.21% (29) | -28.21% (23) |
| howie do it (nbc) | 7.8 | -21.79% (32) | -28.21% (28) | -32.05% (27) |
| true beauty (abc) | 7.6 | -14.47% (21) | -23.68% (23) | -9.21% (7) |
| kath & kim (nbc) | 7.5 | -18.67% (28) | -33.33% (37) | -28.00% (22) |
| secret millionaire (abc) | 7.4 | -1.35% (8) | -27.03% (26) | -9.46% (8) |
| crusoe (nbc) | 7.4 | -17.57% (26) | -44.59% (40) | -43.24% (36) |
| my own worst enemy (nbc) | 7.3 | -21.92% (33) | -27.40% (27) | -41.10% (35) |
| america's toughest jobs (nbc) | 7.3 | -2.74% (10) | -10.96% (8) | -44.38% (37) |
| cupid (abc) | 7.2 | -20.83% (30) | -15.28% (14) | -22.22% (15) |
| hole in the wall (fox) | 7.2 | -44.44% (42) | -25.00% (24) | -34.72% (29) |
| parks & recreation (nbc) | 6.9 | -13.04% (19) | -23.19% (21) | -26.09% (18) |
| gary unmarried (cbs) | 6.8 | 1.47% (6) | 8.82% (1) | 10.29% (2) |
| ex list, the (cbs) | 6.8 | -17.65% (27) | -7.35% (7) | -22.06% (14) |
| unusuals, the (abc) | 6.8 | -11.76% (18) | -14.71% (13) | -30.88% (25) |
| in the motherhood (abc) | 6.7 | -25.37% (37) | -32.84% (36) | -31.34% (26) |
| opportunity knocks (abc) | 6.6 | -9.09% (14) | -21.21% (19) | |
| kings (nbc) | 6.1 | -24.59% (36) | -26.23% (25) | -40.98% (34) |
| momma's boys (nbc) | 6.0 | -16.67% (23) | -16.67% (16) | -11.67% (11) |
| better off ted (abc) | 5.5 | -16.36% (22) | -14.55% (12) | -27.27% (20) |
| sit down, shut up (fox) | 5.2 | -19.23% (29) | -59.62% (42) | -71.15% (40) |
| dollhouse (fox) | 4.8 | -10.42% (16) | -12.50% (10) | -25.00% (16) |
| 90210 (cw) | 4.7 | -31.91% (40) | -29.79% (30) | -38.30% (31) |
| do not disturb (fox) | 4.7 | -17.02% (24) | -23.40% (22) | |
| chopping block (nbc) | 3.8 | -10.53% (17) | -31.58% (34) | -39.47% (33) |
| game show in my head (cbs) | 3.4 | 88.24% (1) | 2.94% (5) | 11.76% (1) |
| privileged (cw) | 2.6 | -7.69% (12) | -30.77% (32) | -26.92% (19) |
| 13: fear is real (cw) | 2.4 | -41.67% (41) | -48.33% (41) | -62.50% (39) |
| stylista (cw) | 2.3 | -21.74% (31) | -21.74% (20) | -26.09% (17) |
| valentine (cw) | 1.1 | -9.09% (15) | -36.36% (38) | -27.27% (21) |
| easy money (cw) | 1.1 | -27.27% (38) | -36.36% (39) | -36.36% (30) |
| in harm's way (cw) | 0.7 | 14.29% (3) | -14.29% (11) | 0.00% (4) |
| average | | -10.88% | -21.54% | -25.47% |
Some other interesting notes: only two of the 19 shows that lost 28% (or more) of their premiere audience got renewed for second seasons: "90210" and "Southland." Conversely, "Gary Unmarried," "Fringe" and "The Mentalist" either built or stayed on par with their debut viewership, not surprisingly earning second seasons in the process. That facet however didn't help "Game Show In My Head," "In Harm's Way" and "Eleventh Hour," all of which were canceled last season. So why were they canceled then? Stay tuned.
TOMORROW: The final tools you'll need to survive the new season.
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[10/13/26 - 12:01 PM] Peacock Greenlights New Series "Assassins" from Executive Producers Scarlett Johansson, Brien Meagher & Rhett Bachner In "Assassins," a group of players compete in a ruthless game of cunning strategy and wit inspired by the massive global phenomenon played in real life around the world.
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[10/13/26 - 12:01 PM] Emmy-Winning HBO Original Comedy Series "Girls," Created by and Starring Lena Dunham, to Return for a Limited Run Returning cast will include Dunham as Hannah, Allison Williams as Marnie, Jemima Kirke as Jessa, Zosia Mamet as Shoshanna, Andrew Rannells as Elijah.
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[10/13/26 - 11:08 AM] Video: "The Holiday Spark" - Official Trailer - The Roku Channel Joey Graziadei and Jamie Chung find a little holiday magic in "The Holiday Spark."
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[10/13/26 - 11:02 AM] NBC Sports Announces 2026-27 Big 12 Men's Basketball Schedule Featuring 20 Games Across Peacock and NBCSN The Big 12 conference slate begins on Wednesday, Jan. 6, with the first of three doubleheaders on Peacock and NBCSN, as Texas Tech hosts Baylor at 8 p.m. ET and UCF visits Arizona at 9 p.m. ET.
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[10/13/26 - 11:02 AM] ESPN and the Big 12 Announce Men's Basketball TV Schedule for 2026-27 Season, Tipping Off November 6 ESPN's five-week Big Monday slate begins Monday, February 1, and continues through March 1, featuring marquee conference matchups including No. 19 Kansas at No. 18 Houston, No. 18 Houston at No. 9 Texas Tech and No. 4 Arizona at No. 20 BYU.
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[10/13/26 - 11:01 AM] Video: "Narnia: The Magician's Nephew" - Official Trailer - Netflix Academy Award-nominated filmmaker Greta Gerwig brings C.S. Lewis' beloved story to the screen for the first time in a sweeping adventure that invites dreamers of all ages to experience the creation of Narnia.
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[10/13/26 - 10:08 AM] Mark Harmon and Michael Weatherly Reunite This Fall on the CBS Original Series "NCIS: Origins" The episode airs Tuesday, October 20 (10:00 PM, ET/PT) on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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[10/13/26 - 10:01 AM] BET Launches "Nick Cannon @ Night," Bringing Candid Conversation to Late Night, Premiering Tuesday, October 20 Hosted by Nick Cannon, BET's modern late-night conversation series brings together entertainers, creators, cultural leaders, doctors, and professionals for candid, funny, and thought-provoking conversations.
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[10/13/26 - 10:00 AM] Hulu and ESPN Announce New Documentary "Spectacle: Michael Jackson at the Super Bowl" Coming February 2027 In January of 1993, the world of sport, entertainment and broadcast was forever transformed when Michael Jackson took the stage at the Rose Bowl during the Super Bowl XXVII Halftime show.
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[10/13/26 - 09:42 AM] "From," The Terrifying Sci-Fi Horror Series, Is Coming to Netflix Seasons 1-3 premiere October 19 on the streaming service.
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[10/13/26 - 09:30 AM] National Geographic Explorers Uncover Deep-Sea Wonders with Groundbreaking Tech as They Chase Critical Solutions to Dilemmas Facing Life Across All Five Ocean Basins in "Expedition: Saving Our Seas" The one-hour special premieres Friday, November 13 at 9:00/8:00c on National Geographic and streams the next day on Disney+ and Hulu.
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[10/13/26 - 09:30 AM] FOX Entertainment and Hartbeat Form IP Development and Global Distribution Partnership The pipeline launches with a slate of 25 live-action titles, spanning thriller, drama, and faith-based storytelling.
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[10/13/26 - 09:17 AM] Katherine Waterston Joins the Cast of "The Best of Us" for Paramount+ Waterston will play Amy Smith, a lawyer and the soon-to-be ex-wife of Jason (Jeremy Strong).
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[10/13/26 - 09:06 AM] Great American Media Welcomes 2027 with the 138th Rose Parade Presented by Honda From the streets of Pasadena to living rooms across America, this treasured New Year's Day tradition will come alive with extraordinary floral artistry, stirring musical performances and spectacular pageantry.
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[10/13/26 - 09:01 AM] Video: NBC Debuts Official Trailers for Monday Night Comedies "St. Denis Medical" & "The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins" Both series return Monday, November 2 starting at 8:00/7:00c.
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