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Welcome to "Ask the Futon," a new, semi-regular feature in which we tackle our most frequently asked questions. Think of it as a follow-up to our "10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season" feature, where we can address the hot button items of the week.
TODAY'S QUESTION: Is a second week drop an omen of things to come?
Obviously it's never good when a show loses viewership, whether it be from week one to week two, season one to season two or anything in between. With that in mind, one of the more brandied about stats is whether viewers who tuned into a show's pilot come back for the second week. Last season, only three shows gained viewership in their second weeks while so far this season none have.
But is it really an accurate indicator on the ultimate fate of a show?
At the end of the day, it's a mixed bag. "Heroes" and "Smith" saw a similar tune out in their second weeks and yet the latter got the hook after three airings. "30 Rock" lost nearly 30% of its initial viewership but went on to survive while "Celebrity Duets" actually gained viewers but didn't make the cut.
On the flip side, only two of the 10 shows at the bottom of the list last season made it to a sophomore year ("30 Rock," "'Til Death").
So what does this say about "Moonlight," "Dirty Sexy Money" and the rest of the freshman class of 2007? Pretty much what you already know: the odds of renewal become increasingly smaller the further you slide on these lists.
Here's the complete breakdown (through 10/7/07):
CHANGE IN TOTAL VIEWERS - WEEK 1 VS. WEEK 2 (FALL 2006)
| series | network | date | change |
| game, the | cw | 10/1/06 | 3.85% |
| men in trees* | abc | 9/15/06 | 2.47% |
| celebrity duets (fri.)* | fox | 9/8/06 | 2.27% |
| shark | cbs | 9/21/06 | -0.68% |
| vanished | fox | 8/21/06 | -1.16% |
| show me the money* | abc | 11/22/06 | -1.28% |
| jericho | cbs | 9/20/06 | -1.71% |
| justice | fox | 8/30/06 | -5.62% |
| 1 vs. 100 | nbc | 10/13/06 | -6.25% |
| 3 lbs. | cbs | 11/14/06 | -7.07% |
| heroes | nbc | 9/25/06 | -7.80% |
| smith | cbs | 9/19/06 | -11.82% |
| help me help you | abc | 9/26/06 | -12.17% |
| ugly betty | abc | 9/28/06 | -12.27% |
| runaway | cw | 9/25/06 | -13.64% |
| brothers & sisters | abc | 9/24/06 | -14.01% |
| celebrity duets (thu.)* | fox | 9/7/06 | -14.71% |
| kidnapped | nbc | 9/20/06 | -17.11% |
| big day | abc | 11/28/06 | -17.11% |
| friday night lights | nbc | 10/3/06 | -18.06% |
| class, the | cbs | 9/18/06 | -19.05% |
| studio 60 on the sunset strip | nbc | 9/18/06 | -19.40% |
| six degrees | abc | 9/21/06 | -19.84% |
| happy hour | fox | 9/7/06 | -22.86% |
| 'til death | fox | 9/7/06 | -25.00% |
| 20 good years | nbc | 10/11/06 | -28.17% |
| 30 rock | nbc | 10/11/06 | -29.63% |
| nine, the | abc | 10/4/06 | -30.25% |
| standoff | fox | 9/5/06 | -33.82% |
| day break | abc | 11/15/06 | -50.00% |
CHANGE IN TOTAL VIEWERS - WEEK 1 VS. WEEK 2 (FALL 2007)
| series | network | date | change |
| moonlight | cbs | 9/28/07 | -5.85% |
| dirty sexy money | abc | 9/26/07 | -7.95% |
| chuck | nbc | 9/24/07 | -8.90% |
| journeyman | nbc | 9/24/07 | -10.15% |
| big bang theory, the | cbs | 9/24/07 | -10.71% |
| life | nbc | 9/26/07 | -12.76% |
| reaper | cw | 9/25/07 | -12.80% |
| private practice | abc | 9/26/07 | -13.60% |
| kitchen nightmares | fox | 9/19/07 | -18.00% |
| cane | cbs | 9/25/07 | -18.02% |
| nashville | fox | 9/14/07 | -18.66% |
| kid nation | cbs | 9/19/07 | -18.76% |
| bionic woman | nbc | 9/26/07 | -20.42% |
| back to you | fox | 9/19/07 | -21.20% |
| cw now | cw | 9/23/07 | -21.78% |
| big shots | abc | 9/27/07 | -25.86% |
| gossip girl | cw | 9/19/07 | -29.14% |
| online nation | cw | 9/23/07 | -31.00% |
| k-ville | fox | 9/17/07 | -31.35% |
CHANGE IN ADULTS 18-49 - WEEK 1 VS. WEEK 2 (FALL 2006)
| series | network | date | change |
| jericho | cbs | 9/20/06 | 15.63% |
| runaway | cw | 9/25/06 | 14.29% |
| men in trees* | abc | 9/15/06 | 13.64% |
| show me the money* | abc | 11/22/06 | 9.52% |
| vanished | fox | 8/21/06 | 3.33% |
| celebrity duets (fri.)* | fox | 9/8/06 | 0.00% |
| justice | fox | 8/30/06 | 0.00% |
| shark | cbs | 9/21/06 | -2.33% |
| 3 lbs. | cbs | 11/14/06 | -6.90% |
| game, the | cw | 10/1/06 | -8.33% |
| smith | cbs | 9/19/06 | -8.57% |
| studio 60 on the sunset strip | nbc | 9/18/06 | -10.00% |
| ugly betty | abc | 9/28/06 | -10.20% |
| brothers & sisters | abc | 9/24/06 | -11.29% |
| celebrity duets (thu.)* | fox | 9/7/06 | -11.54% |
| heroes | nbc | 9/25/06 | -11.67% |
| 1 vs. 100 | nbc | 10/13/06 | -11.90% |
| help me help you | abc | 9/26/06 | -13.89% |
| friday night lights | nbc | 10/3/06 | -14.29% |
| happy hour | fox | 9/7/06 | -16.00% |
| 20 good years | nbc | 10/11/06 | -16.00% |
| big day | abc | 11/28/06 | -17.86% |
| 'til death | fox | 9/7/06 | -20.00% |
| 30 rock | nbc | 10/11/06 | -20.69% |
| kidnapped | nbc | 9/20/06 | -21.43% |
| six degrees | abc | 9/21/06 | -24.14% |
| class, the | cbs | 9/18/06 | -24.32% |
| standoff | fox | 9/5/06 | -29.17% |
| nine, the | abc | 10/4/06 | -30.43% |
| day break | abc | 11/15/06 | -50.00% |
CHANGE IN ADULTS 18-49 - WEEK 1 VS. WEEK 2 (FALL 2007)
| series | network | date | change |
| cw now | cw | 9/23/07 | 50.00% |
| dirty sexy money | abc | 9/26/07 | 0.00% |
| online nation | cw | 9/23/07 | 0.00% |
| kid nation | cbs | 9/19/07 | -6.67% |
| big bang theory, the | cbs | 9/24/07 | -8.11% |
| back to you | fox | 9/19/07 | -9.68% |
| nashville | fox | 9/14/07 | -10.00% |
| cane | cbs | 9/25/07 | -10.34% |
| journeyman | nbc | 9/24/07 | -10.81% |
| private practice | abc | 9/26/07 | -11.76% |
| moonlight | cbs | 9/28/07 | -12.00% |
| reaper | cw | 9/25/07 | -13.33% |
| chuck | nbc | 9/24/07 | -13.89% |
| kitchen nightmares | fox | 9/19/07 | -19.35% |
| big shots | abc | 9/27/07 | -21.28% |
| bionic woman | nbc | 9/26/07 | -27.27% |
| life | nbc | 9/26/07 | -28.57% |
| gossip girl | cw | 9/19/07 | -29.41% |
| k-ville | fox | 9/17/07 | -32.35% |
Got a question for a future "Ask the Futon?" Don't hestitate to drop us a line at the address below.
* denotes that series actually premiered at a special night and/or time. For the purposes of this study, only the first two regular time period airings were used. In addition, the aforementioned data is reproduced for journalistic purposes only - not as an archive of copyrighted data.
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