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Welcome to our Ratings Survival Guide, a handy new feature which takes each new fall series on the broadcast networks and tells you the numbers it will need to survive for a second season. In general, a show's success isn't so much where it lands on the weekly ratings chart but rather how it performs in two key categories:
1. How much of its lead-in audience it retains. If a show averages 10 million viewers that's a good thing. But if the show that airs before it is averaging 30 million viewers, that's not a good thing. Why? Because 20 of those 30 million viewers decided to turn off that particular channel when the next show came on.
2. How it performs year-to-year in its time period. A new show is usually in its time period because the network thinks it can do better than it did in that slot last year. In other words, do worse than the show that was canceled after three weeks last fall then you too probably are not long for this world.
As you'll see, together these measurements paint a clear picture on how a particular show is doing. So without further ado, let's begin.
THE GOOD GUYS (FOX)
(Fridays at 9:00/8:00c)
After a rocky summer run (4.00 million viewers, 1.18 adults 18-49 rating on average) "The Good Guys" returns for the back half of its freshman season on a new night: Fridays at 9:00/8:00c. Compared with FOX's Friday occupants over the past two years, "Good Guys" finds itself already in the red: of those listed, only "Kitchen Nightmares" has managed to survive to the 2010-11 season. Left behind are some disastrous showings by series like "Brothers" and "'Til Death" as well as season two of "Dollhouse," none of which averaged above a 1.0 adults 18-49 rating. With that in mind, "Good Guys" is already walking a thin line between survival and failure.
Here's how FOX has fared on Friday nights the past two seasons (viewers are in millions, adults 18-49 is the percentage of said viewers in the demographic; all are based on fast national data, using only first-run episodes):
|fridays in 2008-2010||time||viewers|
|Kitchen Nightmares: Season 2.2||9:00 PM||3.83|
|Don't Forget the Lyrics! - Season 2||9:00 PM||5.19|
|Dollhouse: Season 1||9:00 PM||3.73|
|5th Grader? - Season 3||8:00 PM||5.91|
|Terminator: TSCC - Season 2||8:00 PM||3.56|
|Bones (Repeats, 2009-10)||9:00 PM||3.92|
|House (Repeats, 2009-10)||8:00 PM||3.37|
|Prison Break: Season 4**||8:00 PM||3.15|
|Dollhouse: Season 2||9:00 PM||2.18|
|Dollhouse: Season 2||8:00 PM||2.30|
|'Til Death: Season 4||8:30 PM||2.21|
** includes only first-run, in-season airings in the specified time period