or


[10/03/12 - 10:22 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 8: New Shows on Average Lose 14% of Their Audience by Episode Two
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

8. New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.

Believe it or not, losing viewership is a common practice for new shows. Looking back at the 179 shows that have premiered on the broadcast networks in the past three years (9/8/09-8/13/12), on average 14.38% of their debut audiences go away by episode two*. By episode three: 19.99%. By episode four: 24.65%. In other words, a quarter of the viewers who tuned into a show's premiere likely won't be there when the fourth episode rolls out.

When you think about it though, those statistics shouldn't be much of a surprise. If - as we've been saying for the past week and counting - only 32% of new shows make it to a second season, it makes sense that most shows will hemorrhage their audience on their way to cancellation.

What is surprising is that even in success, very few shows will ever surpass their debut audiences. Of the aforementioned 179 shows, just 29% ultimately went on to surpass their opening numbers. Or on the flip side, 71% of new shows won't ever do better than their pilots. That includes comedies like "2 Broke Girls," "New Girl" and "Community." Dramas however have the longest odds: 76 dramas have premiered in the past three years, 17% of which never grew from their respective premieres. Among them: "The Vampire Diaries," "Parenthood" and "Blue Bloods."

The lesson here: if your favorite new show is losing viewers each week, that could actually prove to be normal.

PREVIOUSLY: 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.

TOMORROW: Do cable shows have better odds of survival?

* based on P2+ Live+SD Fast National Data





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[06/04/26 - 11:01 AM]
FX's "The Marriage Plot" Limited Series Ordered for FX and Hulu
Sadie Sink is attached to star and executive produce the project, which will be adapted from the acclaimed novel by Jeffrey Eugenides.

[06/04/26 - 10:09 AM]
Patricia Heaton to Star in and Executive Produce MPI Original Films' New Legal Drama Pilot "Public Interest"
Set inside a nonprofit public interest law firm in Washington, D.C., "Public Interest" follows Ingrid Erickson, an attorney unexpectedly thrust into the firm's top leadership role after its longtime president suffers a sudden heart attack, and her unconventional team as they fight for everyday people facing impossible odds.

[06/04/26 - 10:01 AM]
Star-Studded Line-Up of Performers and Presenters Revealed for the "79th Annual Tony Awards" Live Sunday, June 7 on CBS
Rachel Zegler, who will return to Broadway next Spring, will deliver a special tribute to "A Chorus Line," which recently celebrated its 50th anniversary.

[06/04/26 - 09:40 AM]
Joshua Jackson Joins "Your Friends & Neighbors" Season 3
He's no stranger to a tight-knit neighborhood.

[06/04/26 - 09:31 AM]
"Paul Simon: The Quiet Celebration Concert" Premieres in the U.S. on Disney+ and Hulu June 26
The nearly two-hour live concert film was recorded during the legendary singer-songwriter's "A Quiet Celebration Tour."

[06/04/26 - 09:01 AM]
NBC to Air "Alan Jackson: The Last Show"
Filmed before a sold-out crowd at Nashville's Nissan Stadium, the special will capture a once-in-a-generation farewell from one of country music's most beloved and influential artists.

[06/04/26 - 09:01 AM]
Ms. Lauryn Hill to Receive the Living Legend Icon Award at the "BET Awards" 2026 Sponsored by Sprite
Culture's Biggest Night will broadcast live on Sunday, June 28 at 8 PM ET/PT, from the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, with Druski as host.

[06/04/26 - 09:00 AM]
Prime Video Releases First-Look Images and Premiere Date for Season Two of "Batman: Caped Crusader"
The highly anticipated returning animated noir series from DC Studios, Warner Bros. Animation, Bad Robot Productions, and 6th & Idaho will premiere all 10 episodes on Friday, July 31.

[06/04/26 - 08:31 AM]
Peacock Orders "The Break-In," New Mystery Series from Carnival Films and Writer Megan Gallagher
In the aftermath of a devastating home invasion, Alice Rathbone refuses to accept that the tragic event was simply random.

[06/04/26 - 08:05 AM]
Food Network Fires Up July with Four All-New Series, One Brand New Tournament and a Fan-Favorite Return
The BBQ charcoals will be glowing, engines will be revving, and the drama will be scorching this July on Food Network where new and returning series will combine for the network's hottest summer yet.

[06/04/26 - 08:01 AM]
Netflix's "Devil May Cry" Renewed for Third and Final Season!
Across two seasons, "Devil May Cry" has appeared on the Netflix Global Top 10 for four weeks with season 1 accumulating 21.7M views in 2025 and season 2 already accumulating 6.4M views in just two weeks.

[06/04/26 - 07:30 AM]
Tubi Announces Multi-Project Slate with Kevin "KevOnStage" Fredericks
Tubi is deepening the collaboration across formats and genres, spanning two new seasons of "Safe Space," a new scripted workplace comedy as well as his first stand-up special and original feature films on the platform.

[06/04/26 - 07:15 AM]
ESPN Adds Former NBA and WNBA Official Lauren Holtkamp-Sterling as Rules Analyst
In her new role, Holtkamp-Sterling will provide real-time analysis and context around officiating decisions, replay reviews and rules interpretations, giving fans a deeper understanding of some of the game's most pivotal moments.

[06/04/26 - 06:30 AM]
Ryan Leaf Named USA Sports' Lead Analyst for Inaugural Season of Pac-12 Football Coverage on USA Network
USA Network's 22-game slate features multiple appearances by all eight Pac-12 schools with at least one home game for every team, showcasing each unique gameday experience throughout the Pac-12.

[06/04/26 - 04:01 AM]
Great American Media Announces Two Signature Holiday Celebrations - Great American Christmas in July on Great American Family and GFAM+, Miracles of Christmas (NEW) on Great American Faith & Living, Beginning June 26
Headlining Great American Christmas in July is the World Premiere of, "The Trouble with Mistletoe," starring Jillian Murray and Brett Varvel.