or


[10/03/12 - 10:22 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 8: New Shows on Average Lose 14% of Their Audience by Episode Two
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

8. New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.

Believe it or not, losing viewership is a common practice for new shows. Looking back at the 179 shows that have premiered on the broadcast networks in the past three years (9/8/09-8/13/12), on average 14.38% of their debut audiences go away by episode two*. By episode three: 19.99%. By episode four: 24.65%. In other words, a quarter of the viewers who tuned into a show's premiere likely won't be there when the fourth episode rolls out.

When you think about it though, those statistics shouldn't be much of a surprise. If - as we've been saying for the past week and counting - only 32% of new shows make it to a second season, it makes sense that most shows will hemorrhage their audience on their way to cancellation.

What is surprising is that even in success, very few shows will ever surpass their debut audiences. Of the aforementioned 179 shows, just 29% ultimately went on to surpass their opening numbers. Or on the flip side, 71% of new shows won't ever do better than their pilots. That includes comedies like "2 Broke Girls," "New Girl" and "Community." Dramas however have the longest odds: 76 dramas have premiered in the past three years, 17% of which never grew from their respective premieres. Among them: "The Vampire Diaries," "Parenthood" and "Blue Bloods."

The lesson here: if your favorite new show is losing viewers each week, that could actually prove to be normal.

PREVIOUSLY: 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.

TOMORROW: Do cable shows have better odds of survival?

* based on P2+ Live+SD Fast National Data





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[05/28/26 - 09:05 AM]
Comedian Tom Segura's YMH Studios and FOX Creator Studios Seal Multi-Project Partnership
Under the agreement, FCS and YMH Studios will develop, finance, and produce a broad slate of original content to be released via YMH Studios' direct-to-consumer platforms.

[05/28/26 - 09:05 AM]
CBS News Names Investigative Journalist, Best-Selling Author and Filmmaker Nick Bilton Executive Producer of "60 Minutes"
"It is an extraordinary honor to lead the next chapter of '60 Minutes,' one of the most important journalism institutions in this nation's history," said Bilton.

[05/28/26 - 09:04 AM]
A&E's Two-Part Documentary "Scott Peterson: The New Evidence" to Premiere Thursday, July 16 at 9PM ET/PT and Friday, July 17 at 8PM ET/PT
The special revisits the investigation through the lens of newly surfaced evidence, presenting a fresh and deeply detailed perspective on a case that has remained both high-profile and deeply polarizing.

[05/28/26 - 09:00 AM]
The Summer That Changed Hollywood: Peacock Celebrates 25 Years of Universal's "Fast & Furious" Saga and DreamWorks Animation's "Shrek" Films
This June, shift into high gear and journey far, far away to celebrate 25 years of fast cars and fairy tales by revisiting both legendary franchises streaming exclusively on Peacock.

[05/28/26 - 09:00 AM]
Three All-New "The Simpsons" Episodes Streaming This Summer Exclusively on Disney+
The episodes include double-episode "Extreme Makeover: Homer Edition" streaming June 17, and full-length episodes "Simpsley" streaming July 3, and "Yellow Mirror" streaming August 26.

[05/28/26 - 08:01 AM]
Video: "Gamechangers: The Ashlyn Harris Story" - Official Trailer - The Roku Channel
Soccer superstar Ashlyn Harris rose from a chaotic childhood, overcoming tragedy to become a two-time FIFA World Cup champion and USWNT hero.

[05/28/26 - 08:01 AM]
Video: "I Am Frankelda" - Official Trailer - Netflix
Frankelda, a determined 19th-century Mexican writer, journeys into her subconscious to face the monsters she's written about.

[05/28/26 - 07:32 AM]
Video: "Hoppers" - Coming to Disney+ June 3
The latest film from Pixar Animation Studios arrives on the streaming service next week.

[05/28/26 - 07:06 AM]
Video: One Woman, One Legacy - BritBox Debuts Official Trailer and Key Art for Original Series "A Woman of Substance," Premiering June 24th
Based on the best-selling novel of the same name by Barbara Taylor Bradford OBE, "A Woman of Substance" is an epic period drama spanning six decades, charting the rise of Emma Harte from penniless Yorkshire maid in the early 1900s to powerful 1970s business mogul.

[05/28/26 - 07:01 AM]
Video: "In the Hand of Dante" - Official Trailer - Netflix
A writer helps a mob boss steal Dante's handwritten "Divine Comedy" manuscript as a parallel tale follows the 14th-century poet creating his masterpiece.

[05/28/26 - 07:01 AM]
Video: Apple TV Unveils Trailer for Season Two of Neo-Noir Detective Series "Sugar"
"Sugar" will return for its eight-episode second season on Friday, June 19 on Apple TV with one episode, followed by one new episode weekly, every Friday through August 7.

[05/28/26 - 06:01 AM]
Video: "Million Dollar Nannies" - Official Trailer - Hulu
It's not a job, it's a lifestyle. A young group of elite nannies heads to Ibiza to launch a new kind of agency, built by nannies, for nannies.

[05/28/26 - 02:01 AM]
The Fourth and Final Season of "Death Inc." Releases on August 7
The fourth season begins with a big question: who will get the coveted director's chair?

[05/27/26 - 03:13 PM]
FOX Saturday Baseball Draws Strong Audience Over Holiday Weekend
2,355,000 viewers tuned in to the two-game slate highlighted by the Dodgers' 11-3 victory over the Brewers in most of the country.

[05/27/26 - 01:16 PM]
"WWE: Made in America" Special Premieres This Friday, May 29, at 11 P.M. ET on USA Network
As part of USA Network's America 250 celebration, the one-hour special traces the evolution of a regional business into a global powerhouse, examining how the company mirrored the American spirit across five decades.