or


[10/03/12 - 10:22 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 8: New Shows on Average Lose 14% of Their Audience by Episode Two
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

8. New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.

Believe it or not, losing viewership is a common practice for new shows. Looking back at the 179 shows that have premiered on the broadcast networks in the past three years (9/8/09-8/13/12), on average 14.38% of their debut audiences go away by episode two*. By episode three: 19.99%. By episode four: 24.65%. In other words, a quarter of the viewers who tuned into a show's premiere likely won't be there when the fourth episode rolls out.

When you think about it though, those statistics shouldn't be much of a surprise. If - as we've been saying for the past week and counting - only 32% of new shows make it to a second season, it makes sense that most shows will hemorrhage their audience on their way to cancellation.

What is surprising is that even in success, very few shows will ever surpass their debut audiences. Of the aforementioned 179 shows, just 29% ultimately went on to surpass their opening numbers. Or on the flip side, 71% of new shows won't ever do better than their pilots. That includes comedies like "2 Broke Girls," "New Girl" and "Community." Dramas however have the longest odds: 76 dramas have premiered in the past three years, 17% of which never grew from their respective premieres. Among them: "The Vampire Diaries," "Parenthood" and "Blue Bloods."

The lesson here: if your favorite new show is losing viewers each week, that could actually prove to be normal.

PREVIOUSLY: 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.

TOMORROW: Do cable shows have better odds of survival?

* based on P2+ Live+SD Fast National Data





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[10/14/26 - 08:31 AM]
Award Winning Comedian Aziz Ansari Returns to the Stage with a New Netflix Stand-Up Special Coming in 2027
The special will film at the State Theatre New Jersey on October 29, 2026.

[10/14/26 - 08:01 AM]
Video: Paramount+ Releases Final Season Teaser for Emmy-Nominated "Yellowjackets"
The series returns to Paramount+ with the Premium Plan on Friday, November 20.

[10/14/26 - 08:01 AM]
Video: "Alicia's Law" - Official Trailer - Netflix
When her carefully built life comes undone, Alicia returns to practicing law and discovers that rebuilding her career also means redefining herself.

[10/14/26 - 08:01 AM]
HBO Original Documentary "Kordell Stewart / Slash & Burn" Debuts October 27
Directed by Brian Rivera, the film is the latest installment of "NFL Shorts," a collection of short documentaries made in partnership with NFL Films that explores stories connected to the game of football.

[10/14/26 - 08:01 AM]
ESPN Launches "ESPN JV," A New YouTube Channel for Kids
Designed with the next generation of sports fans in mind, ESPN JV brings together some of the biggest names in sports, interactive challenges and familiar characters to make discovering and celebrating sports fun for kids.

[10/14/26 - 08:01 AM]
Video: Prime Video Debuts Official Trailer and Key Art for "The Greatest"
The series will debut all episodes in more than 240 countries and territories worldwide on November 4, 2026, exclusively on Prime Video.

[10/14/26 - 07:29 AM]
ESPN Delivers Sixth Straight Year of Television Viewership Growth, Up 10% in Fiscal Year 2026
ESPN and ESPN on ABC each posted 11% year-over-year growth in total viewership, while ESPN2 increased 3%.

[10/14/26 - 07:01 AM]
Video: "Guarding Stars" - Official Trailer - Netflix
Leighton Meester and Jared Padalecki star in the adaptation of Katherine Center's bestselling novel "The Bodyguard."

[10/14/26 - 05:01 AM]
Netflix Announces Release Date for "Love Is Blind: Netherlands - The Reunion"
Get ready for surprising revelations, emotional reunions, and somewhat heated confrontations.

[10/14/26 - 03:01 AM]
Paco Leon, Miren Ibarguren and Alicia Falco Star in "Rata", Netflix's New and Exciting Comedy
"Rata" is a remake of the 2016 French film "Radin," by Laurent Turner, Nicolas Cuche and Fred CavayƩ.

[10/14/26 - 01:01 AM]
Video: "Obsess" - Official Trailer - Netflix
When a man returns to Kuwait to mourn the death of his father, he unknowingly wanders back into the cursed clutches of an obsessive relationship.

[10/13/26 - 12:01 PM]
Peacock Greenlights New Series "Assassins" from Executive Producers Scarlett Johansson, Brien Meagher & Rhett Bachner
In "Assassins," a group of players compete in a ruthless game of cunning strategy and wit inspired by the massive global phenomenon played in real life around the world.

[10/13/26 - 12:01 PM]
Emmy-Winning HBO Original Comedy Series "Girls," Created by and Starring Lena Dunham, to Return for a Limited Run
Returning cast will include Dunham as Hannah, Allison Williams as Marnie, Jemima Kirke as Jessa, Zosia Mamet as Shoshanna, Andrew Rannells as Elijah.

[10/13/26 - 11:08 AM]
Video: "The Holiday Spark" - Official Trailer - The Roku Channel
Joey Graziadei and Jamie Chung find a little holiday magic in "The Holiday Spark."

[10/13/26 - 11:02 AM]
NBC Sports Announces 2026-27 Big 12 Men's Basketball Schedule Featuring 20 Games Across Peacock and NBCSN
The Big 12 conference slate begins on Wednesday, Jan. 6, with the first of three doubleheaders on Peacock and NBCSN, as Texas Tech hosts Baylor at 8 p.m. ET and UCF visits Arizona at 9 p.m. ET.