or


[09/26/12 - 04:33 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 3: Scripted and Unscripted Shows Fail at the Same Rate
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

3. Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.

If you've been following this feature for the past few days the above shouldn't come as much of a surprise. Of the 892 shows that have premiered in the past 13 seasons (that's 1999-2000 through 2011-2012), the 608 scripted ones made it to second seasons just as often as the 284 unscripted ones: 32% of the time.


genreabccbsfoxnbcupnwbcwtotal
all scripted46/146 (32%)42/103 (41%)33/112 (29%)37/136 (27%)11/36 (31%)18/53 (34%)1/6 (17%)196/608 (32%)
all unscripted25/85 (29%)9/27 (33%)21/60 (35%)29/71 (41%)1/12 (8%)6/14 (43%)0/9 (0%)92/284 (32%)
total71/231 (31%)51/130 (39%)54/172 (31%)66/207 (32%)12/48 (25%)24/67 (36%)10/37 (27%)288/892 (32%)


However, when you filter those scripted and unscripted shows into distinct genres, a slightly different picture is painted:


genreabccbsfoxnbcupnwbcwtotal
comedy (animated)0/2 (0%)0/1 (0%)3/6 (50%)0/3 (0%)0/2 (0%)1/3 (33%)0/0 (0%)4/17 (24%)
comedy (improv-sketch)2/4 (50%)0/0 (0%)0/7 (0%)2/8 (25%)0/0 (0%)2/5 (40%)0/0 (0%)6/24 (25%)
comedy (multi-camera)10/34 (29%)12/32 (38%)6/20 (30%)5/29 (17%)7/15 (47%)5/14 (36%)1/1 (100%)46/145 (32%)
comedy (single-camera)11/23 (48%)0/4 (0%)9/22 (41%)8/22 (36%)1/3 (33%)0/7 (0%)0/2 (0%)29/83 (35%)
drama23/83 (28%)30/66 (45%)15/57 (26%)22/74 (30%)3/16 (19%)10/24 (42%)8/19 (42%)111/339 (33%)
reality (competition)16/46 (35%)7/20 (35%)13/40 (33%)23/58 (40%)1/7 (14%)3/10 (30%)1/6 (17%)64/187 (34%)
reality (non-competition)9/39 (23%)2/7 (29%)8/20 (40%)6/13 (46%)0/5 (0%)3/4 (75%)0/9 (0%)28/97 (29%)
total71/231 (31%)51/130 (39%)54/172 (31%)66/207 (32%)12/48 (25%)24/67 (36%)10/37 (27%)288/892 (32%)


The above tells us that animation on the broadcast networks provides the longest odds: just four series in the past 13 years made it to second seasons, none of which came from ABC, CBS or NBC. On the flip side, single-camera comedies have the best survival rate - albeit by only one percentage point over competition series and two over dramas.

As always, the more telling aspects come from the networks themselves. CBS hasn't given a second season to a single-camera comedy in the past 13 years while ABC has brought back nearly half (48%) of theirs. Conversely, CBS has renewed 45% of its freshman dramas - the best of any network - while ABC's hour-long newcomers only return 28% of the time. Also on interest: ABC and CBS's reality competition series do significantly better than their non-competition ones whereas FOX and NBC are the opposite when it comes to their unscripted offerings.

Likewise, until today's renewal of "Breaking Pointe" (series from this past summer aren't factored into the above as many of their fates are still up in the air), The CW had yet to renew any of its non-competition reality series.

All in all, while shows in general fail at the same rate there are some ebbs and flows to specific genres and on specific networks.

PREVIOUSLY: Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.

TOMORROW: Do certain nights of the week fare better than others?





  [september 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
      


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[11/21/17 - 12:07 PM]
The CW's Midseason Finale Dates
"Riverdale" and "Dynasty" will close out the network's 2017 originals on Wednesday, December 13.

[11/21/17 - 12:00 PM]
"Little Women: Atlanta" Returns with New Episodes on December 13th Followed by the Premiere of the Home Makeover Series "Little Women: Terra's Big House"
"Little Women: LA's Terra Jole and her husband Joe star in the latter series.

[11/21/17 - 11:50 AM]
Oxygen Media Uncovers Infamous Crimes in "Mysteries & Scandals" Hosted by Soledad O'Brien Premiering Friday, January 5 at 9 PM ET/PT
The 13 episode, hour-long series investigates some of the most legendary and intriguing crimes, murders, and scandals that shook the nation and impacted pop culture through vivid first-hand accounts, re-enactments and archival footage.

[11/21/17 - 11:30 AM]
FOX Announces Premiere Dates for "LA to Vegas" and "The Resident"
Plus: the network reveals return dates for the rest of its winter lineup.

[11/21/17 - 11:09 AM]
OWN Rings in the New Year with the Series Premiere of Tyler Perry's Comedy "The Paynes" January 16
Additionally, "The Haves and the Have Nots" and "If Loving You Is Wrong" will return Tuesday, January 9 and Wednesday, January 10, respectively.

[11/21/17 - 10:34 AM]
NBC Picks Up Third Season of "The Good Place"
The critically acclaimed Thursday night comedy will return for another 13-episode season.

[11/21/17 - 09:33 AM]
Stars of Screen, Stage and Sport to Gather in Silicon Valley to Celebrate Science at 6th Annual "Breakthrough Prize" Ceremony Sunday, December 3
For the first time, the show will be streamed live on the Facebook and YouTube platforms of Breakthrough Prize and National Geographic.

[11/21/17 - 09:07 AM]
"Ink Master: Angels" Soar Into a Second Season on Paramount Network
The second season of 10 hour-long episodes will debut on the Paramount Network in March 2018.

[11/21/17 - 07:01 AM]
Emmy(R) Award Winner Alexander Skarsgard Set to Star in The Ink Factory, BBC and AMC's "The Little Drummer Girl"
Production on the six-part mini-series begins early next year with global sales handled by Endeavor Content/IMG.

[11/20/17 - 01:30 PM]
"The Bachelor: Countdown to Arie" Previews the Iconic Series' 22nd Season on Monday, December 11, on ABC
For the first time ever, Bachelor Nation will get an intimate, behind-the-scenes look at Arie Luyendyk Jr.'s life, his family and his love of racing.

[11/20/17 - 12:49 PM]
Investigation Discovery Reveals the Monster Behind the Disappearance of Laci Peterson in "Scott Peterson: An American Murder Mystery"
The two-hour special premieres Wednesday, November 29 at 9:00/8:00c, exclusively on ID.

[11/20/17 - 12:33 PM]
Sports Illustrated and Time Inc. Productions Produce First National Telecast of SI's Sportsperson of the Year Awards; Event to Air on NBCSN
The awards show, which was previously only available for viewing online, will air as a one-hour special Friday, December 8 at 8:00/7:00c on NBCSN.

[11/20/17 - 12:07 PM]
Video: The Wait Is Finally Over - Here's the Official Trailer for Season 3 of "The Magicians"
Look for the new season to roll out Wednesday, January 10 on Syfy.

[11/20/17 - 10:59 AM]
Wedding Bells Ring in Boston for New Season of "Married at First Sight," Premiering January 2
In season six, Boston area singles yearning for a life-long partnership agree to a provocative proposal: getting legally married to a stranger the moment they first meet.

[11/20/17 - 10:21 AM]
"CMT Crossroads" Unites Critically-Acclaimed Pop Superstar Kesha with Grammy Award-Winning Group Old Crow Medicine Show for an All-New Episode Premiering Wednesday, December 6 at 10 PM ET/PT
The episode will tape in Nashville, home to both artists, and feature performances of each other's biggest songs including hits from Kesha's latest No. 1 album Rainbow and Old Crow Medicine Show fan-favorite "Wagon Wheel."