or


[09/26/12 - 04:33 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 3: Scripted and Unscripted Shows Fail at the Same Rate
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

3. Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.

If you've been following this feature for the past few days the above shouldn't come as much of a surprise. Of the 892 shows that have premiered in the past 13 seasons (that's 1999-2000 through 2011-2012), the 608 scripted ones made it to second seasons just as often as the 284 unscripted ones: 32% of the time.


genreabccbsfoxnbcupnwbcwtotal
all scripted46/146 (32%)42/103 (41%)33/112 (29%)37/136 (27%)11/36 (31%)18/53 (34%)1/6 (17%)196/608 (32%)
all unscripted25/85 (29%)9/27 (33%)21/60 (35%)29/71 (41%)1/12 (8%)6/14 (43%)0/9 (0%)92/284 (32%)
total71/231 (31%)51/130 (39%)54/172 (31%)66/207 (32%)12/48 (25%)24/67 (36%)10/37 (27%)288/892 (32%)


However, when you filter those scripted and unscripted shows into distinct genres, a slightly different picture is painted:


genreabccbsfoxnbcupnwbcwtotal
comedy (animated)0/2 (0%)0/1 (0%)3/6 (50%)0/3 (0%)0/2 (0%)1/3 (33%)0/0 (0%)4/17 (24%)
comedy (improv-sketch)2/4 (50%)0/0 (0%)0/7 (0%)2/8 (25%)0/0 (0%)2/5 (40%)0/0 (0%)6/24 (25%)
comedy (multi-camera)10/34 (29%)12/32 (38%)6/20 (30%)5/29 (17%)7/15 (47%)5/14 (36%)1/1 (100%)46/145 (32%)
comedy (single-camera)11/23 (48%)0/4 (0%)9/22 (41%)8/22 (36%)1/3 (33%)0/7 (0%)0/2 (0%)29/83 (35%)
drama23/83 (28%)30/66 (45%)15/57 (26%)22/74 (30%)3/16 (19%)10/24 (42%)8/19 (42%)111/339 (33%)
reality (competition)16/46 (35%)7/20 (35%)13/40 (33%)23/58 (40%)1/7 (14%)3/10 (30%)1/6 (17%)64/187 (34%)
reality (non-competition)9/39 (23%)2/7 (29%)8/20 (40%)6/13 (46%)0/5 (0%)3/4 (75%)0/9 (0%)28/97 (29%)
total71/231 (31%)51/130 (39%)54/172 (31%)66/207 (32%)12/48 (25%)24/67 (36%)10/37 (27%)288/892 (32%)


The above tells us that animation on the broadcast networks provides the longest odds: just four series in the past 13 years made it to second seasons, none of which came from ABC, CBS or NBC. On the flip side, single-camera comedies have the best survival rate - albeit by only one percentage point over competition series and two over dramas.

As always, the more telling aspects come from the networks themselves. CBS hasn't given a second season to a single-camera comedy in the past 13 years while ABC has brought back nearly half (48%) of theirs. Conversely, CBS has renewed 45% of its freshman dramas - the best of any network - while ABC's hour-long newcomers only return 28% of the time. Also on interest: ABC and CBS's reality competition series do significantly better than their non-competition ones whereas FOX and NBC are the opposite when it comes to their unscripted offerings.

Likewise, until today's renewal of "Breaking Pointe" (series from this past summer aren't factored into the above as many of their fates are still up in the air), The CW had yet to renew any of its non-competition reality series.

All in all, while shows in general fail at the same rate there are some ebbs and flows to specific genres and on specific networks.

PREVIOUSLY: Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.

TOMORROW: Do certain nights of the week fare better than others?





  [september 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
      


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)











[10/20/14 - 03:29 PM]
"Gold Rush" Season Five Premiere Tops Cable Television on Friday
Discovery spins the numbers for Friday, October 17.

[10/20/14 - 02:02 PM]
John Ondrasik of Five for Fighting to Perform Original Song for 100th Episode Of "Hawaii Five-0," Nov. 7
The song, titled "All For One," will premiere during the broadcast of the milestone episode.

[10/20/14 - 01:20 PM]
CMT's Highest-Rated Series Ever "Party Down South" Keeps the Party Going This Holiday Season with Two All-New, One-Hour Specials
"Party Down South: Drunksgiving" airs Thursday, November 20 followed by "Party Down South: Christmas Hangover" on Thursday, December 18.

[10/20/14 - 01:19 PM]
HGTV and DIY Network Greenlight Seven New Series
"America's Most Desperate Kitchens," "Log Cabin Living," "Shalina Joy Project" and "Real Estate Riches" are on tap at the former while "First Time Flippers," "Miami Rehab" and "The Treehouse Guys" are coming to the latter.

[10/20/14 - 12:42 PM]
Discovery Fit & Health Pulls Back the White Curtain on Outrageous Medical Emergencies When "Untold Stories of the ER" Returns with the Craziest Cases Special and 100th Episode
The 100th episode kicks off all-new episodes, beginning Friday, November 14 at 10:00/9:00c.

[10/20/14 - 12:22 PM]
Three Families Are "Risking It All" for a Life Off the Grid
TLC's latest original series premieres Tuesday, November 18 at 10:00/9:00c.

[10/20/14 - 12:22 PM]
"Real World: Skeletons" Set to Premiere December 16, 2014 at 10:00 PM ET/PT on MTV
This season, the series begins in the traditional way with seven strangers moving into an old nightclub turned fabulous urban loft in Chicago's West Loop, but each of these roommates has skeletons in their closets.

[10/20/14 - 12:18 PM]
USA Network Orders Third Season of Breakout Comedic Reality Series "Chrisley Knows Best"
Plus: look for a half-hour "Chrisley" holiday special set for this December.

[10/20/14 - 12:10 PM]
Ariana Grande and Meghan Trainor to Perform Duets with Top Country Acts on "The 48th Annual CMA Awards"
Grande will be joining two-time CMA Vocal Group of the Year Little Big Town for an on-air collaboration.

[10/20/14 - 11:51 AM]
ABC Family Invites Fans to Tweet the "Dearly Departed" During a Halloween Special of "Pretty Little Liars," Airing Tuesday, October 21
Janel Parrish ("Mona"), Andrea Parker ("Mrs. DiLaurentis") and Bryce Johnson ("Det. Darren Wilden") will live tweet with fans during the East Coast broadcast.

[10/20/14 - 11:49 AM]
"Untold with Maria Menounos" Premieres Thursday, October 30th at 8:00PM ET/PT
The series takes a closer look at two major entertainment stories that are making headlines today: the Transgender movement and Depression in Comedians.

[10/20/14 - 11:06 AM]
Live + 7 Ratings: ABC's "How to Get Away with Murder" Is the Week's #1 Biggest Gainer in TV Playback in Adults 18-49
ABC further spins the numbers for the week of September 29-October 5.

[10/20/14 - 11:04 AM]
A Wedding, a Breakup and a Divorce?! Don't Miss the "Total Divas" Mid-Season Finale Sunday, October 26 at 9pm ET on E!
Plus: WWE(R) Diva Alicia Fox(TM) and WWE Diva Paige(TM) joint the cast when new episodes resume Sunday, January 4 at 10:00/9:00c.

[10/20/14 - 10:55 AM]
CBS Freshman Dramas Post Strong Second-Week Live +7-Day Lifts
CBS further spins the numbers for the week of September 29-October 5.

[10/20/14 - 10:40 AM]
Pizza Aficionados Sal Basille and Francis Garcia Return to Travel the Country on a Culinary Expedition in Cooking Channel's "Pizza Masters"
The six-episode series launches Friday, December 5 at 9:00/8:00c on the network.