or


[10/05/12 - 04:50 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 10: History Is on the Side of the Majority of This Fall's New Shows
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

10. History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

At this point we've sliced and diced the past 13 seasons in every conceivable fashion: by network, genre, time period, day of the week, the month it launches, etc. The only remaining question: is there any practical application for all of this information?

Well, we're going to try. If we create Venn diagrams of how each of the 22 new fall shows matches up to the historical track record for their specific network, genre, day of the week and time period, we find out that they have the following odds of getting a second season:

100% - animal practice (nbc)
100% - go on (nbc)
100% - neighbors, the (abc)
67% - partners (cbs)
50% - beauty & the beast (cw)
50% - ben & kate (fox)
50% - new normal, the (nbc)
50% - stars earn stripes (nbc)
50% - vegas (cbs)
44% - 666 park avenue (abc)
43% - elementary (cbs)
40% - emily owens, md (cw)
33% - arrow (cw)
33% - revolution (nbc)
32% - industry average for all broadcast shows
29% - made in jersey (cbs)
20% - chicago fire (nbc)
17% - mob doctor, the (fox)
13% - last resort (abc)
11% - nashville (abc)
0% - guys with kids (nbc)
0% - malibu country (abc)
0% - mindy project, the (fox)

Now keep in mind this isn't a critical analysis, this is just how a show's combined generic criteria (its network, its genre, its day of the week, its time period) has fared for the past 13 seasons. Obviously those at the bottom of the list could return while those at the top could get axed - it just hasn't happened in the past 13 years.

And with the industry average being a 32% survival rate, anything that increases or decreases those odds is always of interest. Think of it this way: the above illustrates where each show theoretically starts the race, not where they will finish.

For those curious about how the above numbers break down, here's how each show shakes out:

666 park avenue (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on sundays - 7/15 (47%)
abc dramas on sundays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/9 (44%)

animal practice (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on wednesdays - 2/5 (40%)
nbc single-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:00/7:00c - 2/2 (100%)

arrow (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on wednesdays - 1/4 (25%)
cw dramas on wednesdays at 8:00/7:00c - 1/3 (33%)

beauty & the beast (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on thursdays - 2/3 (67%)
cw dramas on thursdays at 9:00/8:00c - 1/2 (50%)

ben & kate (fox)
fox single-camera comedies - 9/22 (41%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 3/7 (43%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 1/2 (50%)

chicago fire (nbc)
nbc dramas - 22/74 (30%)
nbc dramas on wednesdays - 2/14 (14%)
nbc dramas on wednesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 1/5 (20%)

elementary (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on thursdays - 4/8 (50%)
cbs dramas on thursdays at 10:00/9:00c - 3/7 (43%)

emily owens, md (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on tuesdays - 3/6 (50%)
cw dramas on tuesdays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/5 (40%)

go on (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 4/7 (57%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:00/8:00c - 1/1 (100%)

guys with kids (nbc)
nbc multi-camera comedies - 5/29 (17%)
nbc multi-camera comedies on wednesdays - 0/2 (0%)
nbc multi-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 0/2 (0%)

last resort (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on thursdays - 5/20 (25%)
abc dramas on thursdays at 8:00/7:00c - 1/8 (13%)

made in jersey (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on fridays - 7/20 (35%)
cbs dramas on fridays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/7 (29%)

malibu country (abc)
abc multi-camera comedies - 10/34 (29%)
abc multi-camera comedies on fridays - 1/9 (11%)
abc multi-camera comedies on fridays at 8:30/7:30c - 0/4 (0%)

mindy project, the (fox)
fox single-camera comedies - 9/22 (41%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 3/7 (43%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:30/8:30c - 0/0 (0%)

mob doctor, the (fox)
fox dramas - 15/57 (26%)
fox dramas on mondays - 3/18 (17%)
fox dramas on mondays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/12 (17%)

nashville (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on wednesdays - 5/22 (23%)
abc dramas on wednesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 2/18 (11%)

neighbors, the (abc)
abc single-camera comedies - 11/23 (48%)
abc single-camera comedies on wednesdays - 9/12 (75%)
abc single-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 4/4 (100%)

new normal, the (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 4/7 (57%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:30/8:30c - 2/4 (50%)

partners (cbs)
cbs multi-camera comedies - 12/32 (38%)
cbs multi-camera comedies on mondays - 11/17 (65%)
cbs multi-camera comedies on mondays at 8:30/7:30c - 6/9 (67%)

revolution (nbc)
nbc dramas - 22/74 (30%)
nbc dramas on mondays - 9/23 (39%)
nbc dramas on mondays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/12 (33%)

stars earn stripes (nbc)
nbc reality competitions - 23/58 (40%)
nbc reality competitions on mondays - 8/16 (50%)
nbc reality competitions on mondays at 8:00/7:00c - 3/6 (50%)

vegas (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on tuesdays - 9/15 (60%)
cbs dramas on tuesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/8 (50%)

And that's a wrap! We hope you've enjoyed our primer and can take solace in knowing what forces are at work - both for and against - the new shows rolling out this fall.

PREVIOUSLY: Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[05/18/26 - 01:05 PM]
FX's "Very Young Frankenstein" Picked Up to Series on FX and Hulu
The series, based on 20th Century Studios' "Young Frankenstein," features Zach Galifianakis, Dolly Wells and Spencer House.

[05/18/26 - 12:02 PM]
Next on Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN - June 2026
Upcoming premieres include "Doctor on the Edge," "Not Suitable for Work," "Alice and Steve," and "The Season."

[05/18/26 - 11:16 AM]
FOX Sports Races Full Throttle Into Indianapolis 500 Powered by a Stacked Roster of Elite Broadcasters
Play-by-play announcer Will Buxton is alongside nine-time Indianapolis 500 competitor James Hinchcliffe and 10-time Indy 500 racer Townsend Bell on the call for the 110th Running of the Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge.

[05/18/26 - 11:00 AM]
AMC Global Media and Chris Hardwick Announce Partnership on Relaunch of "I Think You're Overthinking It" Podcast
In this vodcast series, Hardwick invites friends and fellow celebrities for deep-dive, free-flowing conversations that explore the intersection of personal hobbies, life lessons, and the obsessive side of fandom - all while attempting to navigate the beautiful, neurotic mess of overthinking everything.

[05/18/26 - 09:45 AM]
ESPN Presents the 2026 NBA Eastern Conference Finals: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New York Knicks Exclusively on ESPN Networks
ESPN's lead NBA broadcast team - Mike Breen, analysts Richard Jefferson and Tim Legler, and reporter Lisa Salters - will provide commentary throughout the series.

[05/18/26 - 09:31 AM]
"Call My Agent! The Movie" Premieres Globally on Netflix September 10, 2026
The original cast officially reunited Friday night on the Cannes Film Festival red carpet to announce their return in a brand new feature film.

[05/18/26 - 09:30 AM]
Disney+ Joins Hulu to Livestream Bonnaroo, Lollapalooza, and Austin City Limits Music Festivals Globally
The addition of the Disney+ global livestream further enhances Hulu's historic run of streaming these Live Nation festivals by offering globally shared live events that can be watched simultaneously across continents.

[05/18/26 - 08:01 AM]
Video: HBO Max Releases New Teaser from the DC Studios Series "Lanterns," Starring Kyle Chandler, Aaron Pierre, and Kelly Macdonald
Additionally, the teaser revealed a first look at critically acclaimed actress Laura Linney, who will appear in the DC Studios and Warner Bros. Television series.

[05/18/26 - 07:01 AM]
TNT Sports Expands Roland-Garros U.S. Coverage in 2026 with All-Day, Multi-Platform Presentation Across TNT, truTV, HBO Max & Bleacher Report
For the second consecutive year, TNT Sports will present comprehensive live coverage of every day of the tournament, with main draw matches beginning on Sunday, May 24.

[05/18/26 - 07:01 AM]
Disney+ and Hulu to Stream New Series "Adventure Time: Side Quests" on June 29
The new series follows young hero Finn and his magical dog best friend Jake as they embark on adventures across the fantastical land of Ooo - partying with cloud people and punching evil in the butt along the way.

[05/18/26 - 03:01 AM]
"Oasis" Premieres on Netflix June 19
The series follows the guests and staff of an exclusive resort where appearances are deceptive and every character hides secrets that could change the course of the investigation.

[05/18/26 - 03:01 AM]
Video: "Clarkson's Farm" Series 5 - Official Trailer - Prime Video
More Jeremy Clarkson brainwaves, more sheep and certainly more chaos on Diddly Squat Farm!

[05/16/26 - 07:38 AM]
It's the Wild West! Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Defending Champion Thunder Face Victor Wembanyama and Spurs in Western Conference Finals Beginning Monday, May 18, at 8:30 P.M. ET on NBC and Peacock
NBC Sports' Mike Tirico (play-by-play), Naismith Basketball Hall of Famer Reggie Miller and three-time NBA Sixth Man of the Year Jamal Crawford (analysts), and Zora Stephenson and Ashley ShahAhmadi (courtside reporters) will call every game of the series.

[05/15/26 - 02:03 PM]
ABC News Is #1 in Total Viewers on Sunday Morning, in Late-Night and on Friday Night
"20/20" saw week-to-week increases in Adults 25-54 and Adults 18-49, hitting 4-week highs in both measures.

[05/15/26 - 10:42 AM]
The Biggest Home Cook Competition of All-Time Heats Up Food Network This Summer with New Series "100 Cooks"
Hosted by Terry Crews, the series welcomes 100 of the country's best home cooks to run through an epic seven-week culinary gauntlet where 99 cooks will be eliminated and only one is named America's best home cook and wins as much as $250,000.