or


[10/05/12 - 04:50 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 10: History Is on the Side of the Majority of This Fall's New Shows
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

10. History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

At this point we've sliced and diced the past 13 seasons in every conceivable fashion: by network, genre, time period, day of the week, the month it launches, etc. The only remaining question: is there any practical application for all of this information?

Well, we're going to try. If we create Venn diagrams of how each of the 22 new fall shows matches up to the historical track record for their specific network, genre, day of the week and time period, we find out that they have the following odds of getting a second season:

100% - animal practice (nbc)
100% - go on (nbc)
100% - neighbors, the (abc)
67% - partners (cbs)
50% - beauty & the beast (cw)
50% - ben & kate (fox)
50% - new normal, the (nbc)
50% - stars earn stripes (nbc)
50% - vegas (cbs)
44% - 666 park avenue (abc)
43% - elementary (cbs)
40% - emily owens, md (cw)
33% - arrow (cw)
33% - revolution (nbc)
32% - industry average for all broadcast shows
29% - made in jersey (cbs)
20% - chicago fire (nbc)
17% - mob doctor, the (fox)
13% - last resort (abc)
11% - nashville (abc)
0% - guys with kids (nbc)
0% - malibu country (abc)
0% - mindy project, the (fox)

Now keep in mind this isn't a critical analysis, this is just how a show's combined generic criteria (its network, its genre, its day of the week, its time period) has fared for the past 13 seasons. Obviously those at the bottom of the list could return while those at the top could get axed - it just hasn't happened in the past 13 years.

And with the industry average being a 32% survival rate, anything that increases or decreases those odds is always of interest. Think of it this way: the above illustrates where each show theoretically starts the race, not where they will finish.

For those curious about how the above numbers break down, here's how each show shakes out:

666 park avenue (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on sundays - 7/15 (47%)
abc dramas on sundays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/9 (44%)

animal practice (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on wednesdays - 2/5 (40%)
nbc single-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:00/7:00c - 2/2 (100%)

arrow (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on wednesdays - 1/4 (25%)
cw dramas on wednesdays at 8:00/7:00c - 1/3 (33%)

beauty & the beast (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on thursdays - 2/3 (67%)
cw dramas on thursdays at 9:00/8:00c - 1/2 (50%)

ben & kate (fox)
fox single-camera comedies - 9/22 (41%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 3/7 (43%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 1/2 (50%)

chicago fire (nbc)
nbc dramas - 22/74 (30%)
nbc dramas on wednesdays - 2/14 (14%)
nbc dramas on wednesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 1/5 (20%)

elementary (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on thursdays - 4/8 (50%)
cbs dramas on thursdays at 10:00/9:00c - 3/7 (43%)

emily owens, md (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on tuesdays - 3/6 (50%)
cw dramas on tuesdays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/5 (40%)

go on (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 4/7 (57%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:00/8:00c - 1/1 (100%)

guys with kids (nbc)
nbc multi-camera comedies - 5/29 (17%)
nbc multi-camera comedies on wednesdays - 0/2 (0%)
nbc multi-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 0/2 (0%)

last resort (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on thursdays - 5/20 (25%)
abc dramas on thursdays at 8:00/7:00c - 1/8 (13%)

made in jersey (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on fridays - 7/20 (35%)
cbs dramas on fridays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/7 (29%)

malibu country (abc)
abc multi-camera comedies - 10/34 (29%)
abc multi-camera comedies on fridays - 1/9 (11%)
abc multi-camera comedies on fridays at 8:30/7:30c - 0/4 (0%)

mindy project, the (fox)
fox single-camera comedies - 9/22 (41%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 3/7 (43%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:30/8:30c - 0/0 (0%)

mob doctor, the (fox)
fox dramas - 15/57 (26%)
fox dramas on mondays - 3/18 (17%)
fox dramas on mondays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/12 (17%)

nashville (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on wednesdays - 5/22 (23%)
abc dramas on wednesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 2/18 (11%)

neighbors, the (abc)
abc single-camera comedies - 11/23 (48%)
abc single-camera comedies on wednesdays - 9/12 (75%)
abc single-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 4/4 (100%)

new normal, the (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 4/7 (57%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:30/8:30c - 2/4 (50%)

partners (cbs)
cbs multi-camera comedies - 12/32 (38%)
cbs multi-camera comedies on mondays - 11/17 (65%)
cbs multi-camera comedies on mondays at 8:30/7:30c - 6/9 (67%)

revolution (nbc)
nbc dramas - 22/74 (30%)
nbc dramas on mondays - 9/23 (39%)
nbc dramas on mondays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/12 (33%)

stars earn stripes (nbc)
nbc reality competitions - 23/58 (40%)
nbc reality competitions on mondays - 8/16 (50%)
nbc reality competitions on mondays at 8:00/7:00c - 3/6 (50%)

vegas (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on tuesdays - 9/15 (60%)
cbs dramas on tuesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/8 (50%)

And that's a wrap! We hope you've enjoyed our primer and can take solace in knowing what forces are at work - both for and against - the new shows rolling out this fall.

PREVIOUSLY: Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[05/19/26 - 11:00 AM]
Darius Rucker to Receive the Veterans Voice Award Presented by USAA's Honor Through Action at "The 52nd American Music Awards," Live, Monday, May 25 at 8:00 PM, ET, 5:00 PM, PT on CBS
The award recognizes artists who use their platforms to make meaningful, lasting change in the lives of those who served.

[05/19/26 - 10:01 AM]
HBO Original Documentary Series "Bring Me the Beauties: A Model Cult" Debuts June 1
The three-part documentary series chronicles Hoyt Richards, who, at 16 years old, meets an enigmatic Manhattan socialite on a Nantucket beach and is pulled into his spiritual group, Eternal Values.

[05/19/26 - 10:00 AM]
AMC Global Media Invites Fans Deeper Into the World of "The Vampire Lestat" with New Companion Series, "The Vampire Lestat: After Dark"
Hosted by writer, producer and podcast host Lizzie Bassett, the after show will take fans behind the scenes of each weekly episode of "The Vampire Lestat," featuring interviews with series cast and producers.

[05/19/26 - 09:30 AM]
Video: Starz Debuts Jaw-Dropping Trailer for Fifth and Final Season of "Power Book III: Raising Kanan" Premiering on Friday, June 12
"Power Book III: Raising Kanan" is a prequel series in the "Power" universe that explores fan-favorite character Kanan Stark's entry into the drug business and his evolution from an innocent teenager into a ruthless kingpin, influenced by his mother's manipulation and deception.

[05/19/26 - 09:18 AM]
ESPN's Exclusive Presentation of the 2026 Stanley Cup Western Conference Final Presented by Geico Takes The Ice Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
ESPN's Western Conference Final coverage is a prelude to the network's exclusive Stanley Cup Final coverage on ABC.

[05/19/26 - 09:11 AM]
Video: "Voicemails for Isabelle" - Official Trailer - Netflix
A young woman's hilariously confessional voicemails to her late sister are unknowingly redirected to a stranger, who begins to fall in love from afar.

[05/19/26 - 09:01 AM]
Video: Peacock Releases Official Trailer for Season 3 of "Capture"
Don't believe everything you see.

[05/19/26 - 08:05 AM]
It's a Snoopy Summer! Apple TV Announces an All-New Slate of Peanuts Programming
Highlights include a second season of beloved musical "Camp Snoopy" to debut on Friday, June 26 and a brand new special, "Snoopy Presents: There's No Place Like Home, Snoopy," premiering on Friday, July 31.

[05/19/26 - 08:03 AM]
Dave Flemming Joins NBC Sports as a Play-by-Play Voice for "MLB Sunday Leadoff" on Peacock and NBCSN
Flemming makes his NBC Sports' debut this Sunday, May 24.

[05/19/26 - 08:03 AM]
NASCAR on Prime Is Back on the Track for Second Season of Exclusive NASCAR Cup Series Coverage
NASCAR on Prime's celebrated announce team combines seasoned broadcasters with racing legends to bring fans closer than ever to the sport.

[05/19/26 - 08:02 AM]
Video: "Spider-Noir" - Final Trailer - Prime Video
In one week, B Reilly Investigations is open for business.

[05/19/26 - 08:01 AM]
Video: "Rafa" - Official Trailer - Netflix
As he battles for a final triumph on the court, Rafael Nadal opens up like never before about what shaped one of the greatest tennis careers of all time.

[05/19/26 - 08:00 AM]
Video: National Geographic Brings "Best of the World" Franchise to Screens with Emmy Winner Antoni Porowski, Unveiling Trailer and June Premiere Date
The new four-part travel docuseries premieres on National Geographic on June 7 at 9/8c with all episodes streaming next day on Disney+ and Hulu.

[05/19/26 - 07:44 AM]
FOX Nation Finds Its Next Fox-Worthy Stand-Up Special with Jeff Foxworthy's "The Joke's on Me" Premiering June 1
Filmed at the Gas South Theatre in Duluth, Georgia, the special offers a heartfelt and hilarious look at Foxworthy's life, career, and signature comedic style.

[05/19/26 - 07:31 AM]
"America's Sweethearts: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders" Season 3 Premieres June 16, 2026
This season follows the 2025-26 squad from high-pressure auditions and training camp all the way through the NFL season, continuing to offer candid, behind-the-scenes access to one of sports' most iconic teams.