or


[10/05/12 - 04:50 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 10: History Is on the Side of the Majority of This Fall's New Shows
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

10. History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

At this point we've sliced and diced the past 13 seasons in every conceivable fashion: by network, genre, time period, day of the week, the month it launches, etc. The only remaining question: is there any practical application for all of this information?

Well, we're going to try. If we create Venn diagrams of how each of the 22 new fall shows matches up to the historical track record for their specific network, genre, day of the week and time period, we find out that they have the following odds of getting a second season:

100% - animal practice (nbc)
100% - go on (nbc)
100% - neighbors, the (abc)
67% - partners (cbs)
50% - beauty & the beast (cw)
50% - ben & kate (fox)
50% - new normal, the (nbc)
50% - stars earn stripes (nbc)
50% - vegas (cbs)
44% - 666 park avenue (abc)
43% - elementary (cbs)
40% - emily owens, md (cw)
33% - arrow (cw)
33% - revolution (nbc)
32% - industry average for all broadcast shows
29% - made in jersey (cbs)
20% - chicago fire (nbc)
17% - mob doctor, the (fox)
13% - last resort (abc)
11% - nashville (abc)
0% - guys with kids (nbc)
0% - malibu country (abc)
0% - mindy project, the (fox)

Now keep in mind this isn't a critical analysis, this is just how a show's combined generic criteria (its network, its genre, its day of the week, its time period) has fared for the past 13 seasons. Obviously those at the bottom of the list could return while those at the top could get axed - it just hasn't happened in the past 13 years.

And with the industry average being a 32% survival rate, anything that increases or decreases those odds is always of interest. Think of it this way: the above illustrates where each show theoretically starts the race, not where they will finish.

For those curious about how the above numbers break down, here's how each show shakes out:

666 park avenue (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on sundays - 7/15 (47%)
abc dramas on sundays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/9 (44%)

animal practice (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on wednesdays - 2/5 (40%)
nbc single-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:00/7:00c - 2/2 (100%)

arrow (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on wednesdays - 1/4 (25%)
cw dramas on wednesdays at 8:00/7:00c - 1/3 (33%)

beauty & the beast (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on thursdays - 2/3 (67%)
cw dramas on thursdays at 9:00/8:00c - 1/2 (50%)

ben & kate (fox)
fox single-camera comedies - 9/22 (41%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 3/7 (43%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 1/2 (50%)

chicago fire (nbc)
nbc dramas - 22/74 (30%)
nbc dramas on wednesdays - 2/14 (14%)
nbc dramas on wednesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 1/5 (20%)

elementary (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on thursdays - 4/8 (50%)
cbs dramas on thursdays at 10:00/9:00c - 3/7 (43%)

emily owens, md (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on tuesdays - 3/6 (50%)
cw dramas on tuesdays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/5 (40%)

go on (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 4/7 (57%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:00/8:00c - 1/1 (100%)

guys with kids (nbc)
nbc multi-camera comedies - 5/29 (17%)
nbc multi-camera comedies on wednesdays - 0/2 (0%)
nbc multi-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 0/2 (0%)

last resort (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on thursdays - 5/20 (25%)
abc dramas on thursdays at 8:00/7:00c - 1/8 (13%)

made in jersey (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on fridays - 7/20 (35%)
cbs dramas on fridays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/7 (29%)

malibu country (abc)
abc multi-camera comedies - 10/34 (29%)
abc multi-camera comedies on fridays - 1/9 (11%)
abc multi-camera comedies on fridays at 8:30/7:30c - 0/4 (0%)

mindy project, the (fox)
fox single-camera comedies - 9/22 (41%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 3/7 (43%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:30/8:30c - 0/0 (0%)

mob doctor, the (fox)
fox dramas - 15/57 (26%)
fox dramas on mondays - 3/18 (17%)
fox dramas on mondays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/12 (17%)

nashville (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on wednesdays - 5/22 (23%)
abc dramas on wednesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 2/18 (11%)

neighbors, the (abc)
abc single-camera comedies - 11/23 (48%)
abc single-camera comedies on wednesdays - 9/12 (75%)
abc single-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 4/4 (100%)

new normal, the (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 4/7 (57%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:30/8:30c - 2/4 (50%)

partners (cbs)
cbs multi-camera comedies - 12/32 (38%)
cbs multi-camera comedies on mondays - 11/17 (65%)
cbs multi-camera comedies on mondays at 8:30/7:30c - 6/9 (67%)

revolution (nbc)
nbc dramas - 22/74 (30%)
nbc dramas on mondays - 9/23 (39%)
nbc dramas on mondays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/12 (33%)

stars earn stripes (nbc)
nbc reality competitions - 23/58 (40%)
nbc reality competitions on mondays - 8/16 (50%)
nbc reality competitions on mondays at 8:00/7:00c - 3/6 (50%)

vegas (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on tuesdays - 9/15 (60%)
cbs dramas on tuesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/8 (50%)

And that's a wrap! We hope you've enjoyed our primer and can take solace in knowing what forces are at work - both for and against - the new shows rolling out this fall.

PREVIOUSLY: Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[02/19/19 - 12:14 PM]
TV One Announces Production of Original Film "The Bobby Debarge Story" Starring Roshon Fegan, Big Boi, Tyra Ferrell, Lloyd and Adrian Marcel; Debuting June 2019
The movie explores the tumultuous life of the former lead singer of the 70's R&B/Funk Band Switch, also the eldest sibling of the world-famous pop group DeBarge.

[02/19/19 - 11:01 AM]
Netflix Orders Scripted Series "Medical Police" from Rob Corddry, Krister Johnson, Jonathan Stern, and David Wain
Erinn Hayes and Rob Huebel star in the project, which will also feature Malin Akerman, Lake Bell, Rob Corddry, and Ken Marino in recurring roles.

[02/19/19 - 10:04 AM]
The Fourth and Final Season of Emmy Award-Winning "The Man in the High Castle" to Premiere This Fall Exclusively on Amazon Prime Video
The final season is currently being filmed in Vancouver and will wrap next month.

[02/19/19 - 10:01 AM]
Emmy(R) Award-Winning "RuPaul's Drag Race" Ru-veals Guest Judges for Highly Anticipated Season 11 Premiering Thursday, February 28 at 9:00PM ET/PT on VH1
Miley Cyrus, Troye Sivan, Lena Waithe, Joel McHale, Cara Delevingne, Bobby Moynihan, Kandi Burruss, Tiffany Pollard, Gina Rodriguez, Sydelle Noel, Wanda Sykes, Tony Hale and Adam Rippon are all on tap.

[02/19/19 - 10:00 AM]
Round Three: A Dozen More Stars Take the Oscar Stage
The latest presenters include Elsie Fisher, Danai Gurira, Brian Tyree Henry, Michael B. Jordan, Michael Keaton, Helen Mirren, John Mulaney, Tyler Perry, Pharrell Williams, Krysten Ritter, Paul Rudd and Michelle Yeoh.

[02/19/19 - 08:32 AM]
HBO(R) Invites "Game of Thrones(R)" Fans to Bleed for the Throne in National American Red Cross Blood Drive
The partnership will include an immersive experience at SXSW from March 7-9, in addition to blood drives in 43 states and 9 colleges and universities across the U.S. from March 7-12.

[02/19/19 - 08:30 AM]
"Arrested Development" Season 5, Part Two Launches March 15
Buster's on the run, no one has seen Lucille 2, and the wall is still unfunded.

[02/19/19 - 08:10 AM]
Monday's Broadcast Ratings: NBC Finales Top Viewers; ABC Wins Demo Race
"The Bachelor" leads the night among adults 18-49 while "America's Got Talent: The Champions" is the most-watched program overall.

[02/19/19 - 07:01 AM]
Video: Netflix Debuts Trailer & Key Art for "The Dirt"
Based on the bestselling autobiography from Mötley Crüe, the film is an unflinching tale of success and excess as four misfits rise from the streets of Hollywood to the heights of international fame.

[02/19/19 - 06:39 AM]
Netflix's "Green Eggs and Ham" Announces Ensemble Cast for Fall Debut
Adam Devine, Michael Douglas, Ilana Glazer, Diane Keaton, Eddie Izzard, Tracy Morgan and Keegan-Michael Key are all on tap.

[02/19/19 - 06:03 AM]
Jonathan and Drew Scott to Create Lifetime Homes for Families in New HGTV Series "Property Brothers: Forever Home"
The series will premiere Wednesday, May 29 at 9:00/8:00c.

[02/19/19 - 06:02 AM]
Video: "Most Beautiful Thing" - Official Trailer - Netflix
The year is 1959, the first Bossa Nova chords are being played, and Rio de Janeiro is the place where everyone wants to be.

[02/19/19 - 06:01 AM]
Netflix Creates Production Hub in Toronto, Leasing Studio Space at Cinespace and Pinewood Toronto Studios, Extending Canadian Efforts
The new spaces add to Netflix's existing physical production footprint in Canada, which already includes a lease of British Columbia's Martini Film Studios, as well as production sites Netflix sets up across Canada on a production-by-production basis.

[02/18/19 - 08:46 AM]
A Letter to Marvel Television Fans from Jeph Loeb
The company confirms Netflix has "decided they no longer want to continue telling the tales of these great characters."

[02/18/19 - 08:28 AM]
Sunday's Broadcast Ratings: Daytona 500 Gives FOX a Demo Boost
The network takes home the adults 18-49 crown while CBS is the most-watched network.