or


[10/03/12 - 10:22 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 8: New Shows on Average Lose 14% of Their Audience by Episode Two
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

8. New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.

Believe it or not, losing viewership is a common practice for new shows. Looking back at the 179 shows that have premiered on the broadcast networks in the past three years (9/8/09-8/13/12), on average 14.38% of their debut audiences go away by episode two*. By episode three: 19.99%. By episode four: 24.65%. In other words, a quarter of the viewers who tuned into a show's premiere likely won't be there when the fourth episode rolls out.

When you think about it though, those statistics shouldn't be much of a surprise. If - as we've been saying for the past week and counting - only 32% of new shows make it to a second season, it makes sense that most shows will hemorrhage their audience on their way to cancellation.

What is surprising is that even in success, very few shows will ever surpass their debut audiences. Of the aforementioned 179 shows, just 29% ultimately went on to surpass their opening numbers. Or on the flip side, 71% of new shows won't ever do better than their pilots. That includes comedies like "2 Broke Girls," "New Girl" and "Community." Dramas however have the longest odds: 76 dramas have premiered in the past three years, 17% of which never grew from their respective premieres. Among them: "The Vampire Diaries," "Parenthood" and "Blue Bloods."

The lesson here: if your favorite new show is losing viewers each week, that could actually prove to be normal.

PREVIOUSLY: 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.

TOMORROW: Do cable shows have better odds of survival?

* based on P2+ Live+SD Fast National Data





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)









[04/18/14 - 08:42 AM]
"Parenthood" Jumps 18% Versus Last Week in 18-49, Making It Its Top Episode in Three Weeks
NBC spins the numbers for Thursday, April 17.

[04/18/14 - 08:22 AM]
Thursday's Broadcast Ratings: "Scandal" Finale Powers ABC Into the Top Spot
The Alphabet takes home the adults 18-49 crown but falls just short as the most-watched network.

[04/18/14 - 08:17 AM]
ABC Wins Thursday with "Scandal" Posting Best-Ever Season Finale Numbers
ABC spins the numbers for Thursday, April 17.

[04/18/14 - 08:06 AM]
Celebrities, Renovating Families and Fixer-Uppers Take Center Stage in Nine New Series on HGTV
Among the network's latest additions: "Genevieve's Renovation," "Sold on the Spot" and "The Brothers Big Reno Project."

[04/18/14 - 07:45 AM]
Ed Stafford Returns to Discovery in All-New Epic Series, "Marooned" Premiering Wednesday, April 23 at 10PM ET/PT
Ed strive to prove to himself that he can tackle the challenges of any environment, once again with nothing except his camera - and find everything he needs to not just survive, but thrive in some of the world's toughest environments.

[04/17/14 - 09:31 PM]
"American Idol" Voting Results for April 17
Next week, on Wednesday, April 23, the Top Six get a little bit country and a little bit rock and roll as they perform two songs each - one country and one rock!

[04/17/14 - 03:04 PM]
Season Two of "Paternity Court with Lauren Lake" Begins Production in Atlanta This Summer
Presiding judge Lauren Lake will once again take her place on the bench, helping families come together to sort out complicated relationships and find resolution in their lives.

[04/17/14 - 02:31 PM]
Wednesday's Cable Ratings & Broadcast Finals: "Survivor," "American Idol" Top Charts
Plus: numbers for FS1's "The Ultimate Fighter," Comedy Central's "Workaholics" and the NHL playoffs on CNBC and NBCSN.

[04/17/14 - 02:22 PM]
Exclusive World Premiere of Hour-Long Special "SuperSong" Starring Ricky Martin Launches on Crackle April 21
"SuperSong" takes viewers behind-the-scenes with global superstar Ricky Martin and music producer Salaam Remi as they record SuperSong contest winner Elijah King's winning track.

[04/17/14 - 01:48 PM]
"Arnie" Becomes Most-Watched Original Production in Golf Channel History
Golf Channel spins the numbers for Sunday, April 13 through Tuesday, April 15.

[04/17/14 - 01:30 PM]
TBS Hit Series "Sullivan & Son" to Welcome Back Guest Stars Kunal Nayyar, Ken Jeong and Billy Gardell
The series is set to launch its third season with back-to-back episodes Tuesday, June 24 at 10:00/9:00c.

[04/17/14 - 01:04 PM]
Amazon Fire TV's Voice Search Gets New Partners
Hulu Plus, Crackle, and SHOWTIME ANYTIME are joining VEVO in integrating their full catalogs into Fire TV's unified voice search.

[04/17/14 - 12:04 PM]
The CW Announces Summer 2014 Premiere Dates
Highlights include the return of "Beauty and the Beast" and the premieres of "Backpackers" and "Seed."

[04/17/14 - 12:00 PM]
IDW Entertainment, George Lopez, & David M. Stern Developing "Wormwood" as an Animated Series
David M. Stern has been tapped to write the pilot episode and serve as an executive producer on the series.

[04/17/14 - 11:56 AM]
David Letterman, Jerry Seinfeld, Jon Stewart, Tracy Morgan, Martin Scorsese and Robert De Niro to Headline Spike TV's "One Night Only: An All-Star Comedy Tribute to Don Rickles"
The 90-minute special, produced in conjunction with Don Mischer Productions, airs on Spike TV on Wednesday, May 28 at 9:00/8:00c.