or


[10/03/12 - 10:22 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 8: New Shows on Average Lose 14% of Their Audience by Episode Two
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

8. New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.

Believe it or not, losing viewership is a common practice for new shows. Looking back at the 179 shows that have premiered on the broadcast networks in the past three years (9/8/09-8/13/12), on average 14.38% of their debut audiences go away by episode two*. By episode three: 19.99%. By episode four: 24.65%. In other words, a quarter of the viewers who tuned into a show's premiere likely won't be there when the fourth episode rolls out.

When you think about it though, those statistics shouldn't be much of a surprise. If - as we've been saying for the past week and counting - only 32% of new shows make it to a second season, it makes sense that most shows will hemorrhage their audience on their way to cancellation.

What is surprising is that even in success, very few shows will ever surpass their debut audiences. Of the aforementioned 179 shows, just 29% ultimately went on to surpass their opening numbers. Or on the flip side, 71% of new shows won't ever do better than their pilots. That includes comedies like "2 Broke Girls," "New Girl" and "Community." Dramas however have the longest odds: 76 dramas have premiered in the past three years, 17% of which never grew from their respective premieres. Among them: "The Vampire Diaries," "Parenthood" and "Blue Bloods."

The lesson here: if your favorite new show is losing viewers each week, that could actually prove to be normal.

PREVIOUSLY: 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.

TOMORROW: Do cable shows have better odds of survival?

* based on P2+ Live+SD Fast National Data





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[09/18/26 - 08:18 AM]
Video: Official Trailer for New Supernatural Teen Drama "Coven Academy" Drops Ahead of Oct. 1 Premiere on Freeform, Next Day on Disney+ and Hulu
As the story unfolds in a bingeable new format, the fast-paced chapters are designed to pull audiences deeper into the magic at every turn.

[09/18/26 - 07:55 AM]
Peacock Reveals Celebrity Cast for a New Season of the Emmy Award-Winning Reality Competition Series "The Traitors," Coming in 2027
Steering the game with his unrivaled looks and signature wit is beloved host and Emmy Award-winner Alan Cumming, who also serves as executive producer.

[09/18/26 - 07:00 AM]
Video: All Reality and We TV Unveil a First Look at New Original Series "Love After Lockup: Relationship Rehab" Premiering Friday, October 2
The nine-episode series gathers five fan-favorite couples from the franchise as they embark on a transformative journey with psychiatrist and nationally recognized relationship expert, Dr. Ish Major, working to heal old wounds and rebuild their relationships.

[09/18/26 - 06:31 AM]
Netflix Adds Legend Andres Cantor to Broadcast Team for the FIFA Women's World Cup 2027
The addition marks a milestone moment for Netflix's historic coverage of the tournament, which will feature English and Spanish-language broadcasts in the United States, and English and French-language broadcasts in Canada.

[09/18/26 - 06:01 AM]
Video: "Therapy Done Right" - Official Trailer - Netflix
A psychoanalyst who's lost faith in traditional therapy crosses every boundary to help a blocked novelist in this cutting Argentine dark comedy.

[09/18/26 - 02:01 AM]
Video: "Seriously Single Too" - Official Trailer - Netflix
Dineo and Noni - besties meant to take on the party scene together - suddenly face their biggest fear when Noni's boyfriend spontaneously proposes.

[09/17/26 - 09:01 PM]
Video: "Balaraw: Blood Island" - Official Teaser - Netflix
Years after her mother vanished, Sabina follows a mysterious clue to an uncharted island, where she confronts hidden dark secrets within her own family.

[09/17/26 - 03:31 PM]
Netflix Announces New Dark Comedy Series "All the Rage"
A half-hour dark revenge comedy about Emma and Eli, old friends who reconnect after a long estrangement and find new purpose in taking down the man who tore them apart.

[09/17/26 - 02:00 PM]
NBC's "The Voice" Returns for a Landmark Season 30 with a Three-Night Premiere Event Starting Monday, Sept. 21 at 8 P.M. ET/PT
The new season marks the first-ever simulcast on Peacock for an NBC entertainment program.

[09/17/26 - 01:30 PM]
It's Official: Jalen Brunson to Guest Star on NBC's "Law & Order: SVU"
Brunson will appear in the season's fifth episode in a role being kept under wraps.

[09/17/26 - 12:00 PM]
Peacock's New True Crime Documentary "Kill. Bury. Print." Premieres on Sunday, Sept. 27
The new true-crime documentary, produced by Rachel Maddow, spotlights the complex story behind local corruption and press intimidation in Southeast Oklahoma.

[09/17/26 - 12:00 PM]
CBS and Paramount+ Present "The JLo Show"
The concert film capturing Jennifer Lopez's celebrated residency will premiere Thanksgiving evening, Thursday, November 26 (8:00-10:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network, and stream on Paramount+, with an extended version available exclusively on Paramount+.

[09/17/26 - 11:20 AM]
Lifetime Announces Four New Original Movies This Fall Featuring All-Star Casts
Luke Macfarlane and Siobhan Williams; Matthew Morrison and Molly Saunders; Maddy Hillis, Karis Cameron and Jean Luc Bilodeau; and Judy Reyes and Tahmoh Penikett are among the featured talent.

[09/17/26 - 10:20 AM]
Edie Falco to Star in FOX's New Series "Katie Greaves" (wt)
Falco stars as a whip-smart, fiercely committed attorney who stepped away from the New Hampshire Public Defender's office following a devastating personal tragedy.

[09/17/26 - 10:09 AM]
Video: "CIA" Season 2 Premiere Trailer - CBS
The new season premieres Monday, October 5 on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.