or


[09/24/12 - 04:17 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 1: Only 32% of Network Shows Make It to a Second Season
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

1. Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.

In the past 13 seasons (that's 1999-2000 through 2011-2012), 892 new primetime series have launched on the major broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC and The CW). Of those, just 288 made it to a second season. That's a 32% survival rate. Don't believe us? Check out the hard data:


seasonabccbsfoxnbcupnwbcwtotal
1999-20003/12 (25%)6/12 (50%)2/12 (17%)5/15 (33%)1/7 (14%)5/10 (50%)22/68 (32%)
2000-20015/12 (42%)4/10 (40%)4/12 (33%)5/17 (29%)2/8 (25%)3/7 (43%)23/66 (35%)
2001-20024/16 (25%)4/11 (36%)5/17 (29%)7/15 (47%)2/5 (40%)4/11 (36%)26/75 (35%)
2002-20037/21 (33%)5/12 (42%)4/17 (24%)8/17 (47%)2/6 (33%)5/13 (38%)31/86 (36%)
2003-20042/17 (12%)4/8 (50%)7/22 (32%)3/11 (27%)2/9 (22%)4/11 (36%)22/78 (28%)
2004-20059/21 (43%)3/11 (27%)6/17 (35%)6/20 (30%)2/8 (25%)2/7 (29%)28/84 (33%)
2005-20062/17 (12%)6/12 (50%)4/11 (36%)3/16 (19%)1/5 (20%)1/8 (13%)17/69 (25%)
2006-20077/27 (26%)4/10 (40%)3/14 (21%)6/17 (35%)2/4 (50%)22/72 (31%)
2007-20089/21 (43%)3/11 (27%)3/11 (27%)4/15 (27%)2/8 (25%)21/66 (32%)
2008-20096/17 (35%)2/8 (25%)5/10 (50%)3/17 (18%)1/8 (13%)17/60 (28%)
2009-20108/20 (40%)4/8 (50%)4/8 (50%)6/13 (46%)2/8 (25%)24/57 (42%)
2010-20113/16 (19%)3/10 (30%)3/10 (30%)3/17 (18%)1/3 (33%)13/56 (23%)
2011-2012*6/14 (43%)3/7 (43%)4/11 (36%)7/17 (41%)2/6 (33%)22/55 (40%)
total71/231 (31%)51/130 (39%)54/172 (31%)66/207 (32%)12/48 (25%)24/67 (36%)10/37 (27%)288/892 (32%)

* does not include this summer's 15 newcomers as many of those fates are still in the air


That 32% survival rate is surprisingly universal as ABC, FOX and NBC are all on that baseline while CBS (39%) and The CW (27%) teeter on the opposite ends of the spectrum. We can also observe that no network has ever had better than a 50% survival rate in any given season. Likewise, we've seen both the worst (23% in 2010-2011) and the best (42% in 2009-2010) survival rates come to pass in recent years. (This past season's 40% rate will likely fall between 32%-35% once this summer's 15 newcomers are factored in.)

The takeaway here is this: with 47 series (and counting) due to premiere during the 2012-2013 season, history shows that only 15 will likely make it to a second season. So brace yourself, chances are the majority of the new shows you've added to your viewing schedule won't be back this time next year.

TOMORROW: Do shows that launch in September have a better chance of survival than any other month?





  [september 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
      


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[08/30/16 - 10:01 AM]
Kevin James Hosts "CBS Fall Preview," A Special Presenting a "First Look" at the Network's New Fall Series, to Be Broadcast Monday, Sept. 12
In addition, the special will be available on demand across multiple platforms through mid-October, providing viewers with convenient anytime access to information about the network's new fall lineup.

[08/30/16 - 09:32 AM]
Video: #LoweRoast Preview Clip - Pete Davidson Goes After Peyton Manning
Pete Davidson loves famed quarterback Peyton Manning, but he also has some observations about the size of his head.

[08/30/16 - 09:05 AM]
Spike TV's "Lip Sync Battle" Coming to Carnival Cruise Line
Lip Sync Battle Carnival is an authentic recreation of the popular show where contestants can live out their music-star fantasies, facing off in a head-to-head competition to create the most unforgettable lip sync performances to iconic and popular songs.

[08/30/16 - 08:30 AM]
Disney Channel to Premiere "Disney's The Lodge," A Music-Filled Mystery/Drama Filmed in Northern Ireland
"The Lodge" includes nine original songs integral to the story's central kid-empowering theme of "believe in yourself."

[08/30/16 - 07:23 AM]
It Is All Chills & Thrills on a New Season of "Halloween Wars"
Six teams composed of a pumpkin carving expert, cake artist and sugar artist will battle it out as they create Halloween-themed edible displays that are so ghostly good, it's frightening!

[08/30/16 - 06:40 AM]
"Bound in a Box: The True Story of Colleen Stan" - One-Hour Special Airs Saturday, September 10 at 5/4c on Investigation Discovery
The special tells the story of Colleen Stan, who was 20 years old in 1977 when she was kidnapped and imprisoned in a coffin-sized box for up to 23 hours a day for seven years.

[08/30/16 - 06:01 AM]
ABC Announces This Season's "Dancing with the Stars" Celebrity Cast Live on "Good Morning America"
This season's lineup of celebrity dancers includes two Gold medal-winning U.S. Olympians, a multi Grammy award-winning musician, a star of one of the most iconic television programs ever, one of the greatest wide receivers of all time, and the former governor of Texas, to name just a few.

[08/29/16 - 02:28 PM]
NBC's "The New Celebrity Apprentice," "Grimm" and "Emerald City" Receive January Debut Dates
"Grimm" will begin its sixth and final season on Friday, January 6 at 8:00/7:00c.

[08/29/16 - 01:23 PM]
"Indian Summers," Season 2 on "Masterpiece" on PBS
Look for the new season Sunday nights beginning September 11 through November 20.

[08/29/16 - 12:34 PM]
Video: Starz Releases Official Season Two Key Art and Video for Original Series "Ash vs Evil Dead"
Season Two kicks off with a double-deadite battle royale interrupting the party, Ash is forced to return back to his hometown of Elk Grove, Michigan... and as always, Evil follows him.

[08/29/16 - 12:29 PM]
"Flip or Flop" Helps Deliver More Than Seven Million Total Viewers to HGTV
HGTV spins the numbers for Thursday, August 25.

[08/29/16 - 12:26 PM]
Smithsonian Channel(TM) Commemorates 9/11 on Fifteenth Anniversary with Special Day of Programming
Smithsonian Channel will mark the fifteenth anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks with a special day of programming on Sunday, September 11.

[08/29/16 - 12:24 PM]
Nickelodeon Takes Skateboarding to New Heights in "Jagger Eaton's Mega Life," New Docu-Series Premiering Friday, Sept. 9, at 7:30 P.M. (ET/PT)
The 20-episode series follows Eaton as he immerses himself in the world of his sports idols - Chris Bosh, Leticia Bufoni, Bubba Wallace, Larry Fitzgerald, Erika Lang, to name a few, who are pushing their limits and inspiring others to do the same.

[08/29/16 - 12:12 PM]
"Three Days of Terror: The Charlie Hebdo Attacks," An Unprecedented Look at the Jan. 2015 Al-Qaeda and ISIS Attacks in Paris, Debuts Sept. 19 on HBO
Emmy(R) nominee Dan Reed ("Terror at the Mall") spotlights the courage and resilience of Parisian police and citizens.

[08/29/16 - 12:03 PM]
Freeform Announces the Series Finale of "Pretty Little Liars" and Premiere of I. Marlene King's New Series "Famous in Love"
Freeform announced the news today via a Facebook live interview with creator and showrunner I. Marlene King and cast members Troian Bellisario, Ashley Benson, Lucy Hale, Shay Mitchell and Sasha Pieterse.