or


[09/24/12 - 04:17 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 1: Only 32% of Network Shows Make It to a Second Season
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

1. Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.

In the past 13 seasons (that's 1999-2000 through 2011-2012), 892 new primetime series have launched on the major broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC and The CW). Of those, just 288 made it to a second season. That's a 32% survival rate. Don't believe us? Check out the hard data:


seasonabccbsfoxnbcupnwbcwtotal
1999-20003/12 (25%)6/12 (50%)2/12 (17%)5/15 (33%)1/7 (14%)5/10 (50%)22/68 (32%)
2000-20015/12 (42%)4/10 (40%)4/12 (33%)5/17 (29%)2/8 (25%)3/7 (43%)23/66 (35%)
2001-20024/16 (25%)4/11 (36%)5/17 (29%)7/15 (47%)2/5 (40%)4/11 (36%)26/75 (35%)
2002-20037/21 (33%)5/12 (42%)4/17 (24%)8/17 (47%)2/6 (33%)5/13 (38%)31/86 (36%)
2003-20042/17 (12%)4/8 (50%)7/22 (32%)3/11 (27%)2/9 (22%)4/11 (36%)22/78 (28%)
2004-20059/21 (43%)3/11 (27%)6/17 (35%)6/20 (30%)2/8 (25%)2/7 (29%)28/84 (33%)
2005-20062/17 (12%)6/12 (50%)4/11 (36%)3/16 (19%)1/5 (20%)1/8 (13%)17/69 (25%)
2006-20077/27 (26%)4/10 (40%)3/14 (21%)6/17 (35%)2/4 (50%)22/72 (31%)
2007-20089/21 (43%)3/11 (27%)3/11 (27%)4/15 (27%)2/8 (25%)21/66 (32%)
2008-20096/17 (35%)2/8 (25%)5/10 (50%)3/17 (18%)1/8 (13%)17/60 (28%)
2009-20108/20 (40%)4/8 (50%)4/8 (50%)6/13 (46%)2/8 (25%)24/57 (42%)
2010-20113/16 (19%)3/10 (30%)3/10 (30%)3/17 (18%)1/3 (33%)13/56 (23%)
2011-2012*6/14 (43%)3/7 (43%)4/11 (36%)7/17 (41%)2/6 (33%)22/55 (40%)
total71/231 (31%)51/130 (39%)54/172 (31%)66/207 (32%)12/48 (25%)24/67 (36%)10/37 (27%)288/892 (32%)

* does not include this summer's 15 newcomers as many of those fates are still in the air


That 32% survival rate is surprisingly universal as ABC, FOX and NBC are all on that baseline while CBS (39%) and The CW (27%) teeter on the opposite ends of the spectrum. We can also observe that no network has ever had better than a 50% survival rate in any given season. Likewise, we've seen both the worst (23% in 2010-2011) and the best (42% in 2009-2010) survival rates come to pass in recent years. (This past season's 40% rate will likely fall between 32%-35% once this summer's 15 newcomers are factored in.)

The takeaway here is this: with 47 series (and counting) due to premiere during the 2012-2013 season, history shows that only 15 will likely make it to a second season. So brace yourself, chances are the majority of the new shows you've added to your viewing schedule won't be back this time next year.

TOMORROW: Do shows that launch in September have a better chance of survival than any other month?





  [september 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
      


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[12/12/19 - 03:15 PM]
Amazon Studios Orders Fourth Season of the Award-Winning Comedy "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel"
"We were thrilled to hear that for the fourth time, we do not have to pack up and vacate the premises," said Amy Sherman-Palladino and Daniel Palladino.

[12/12/19 - 01:50 PM]
Lifetime's New Documentary Film Series "Hopelessly in Love" Explores Iconic and Tragic Celebrity Unions in Pop Culture History as a Three-Week Event This January
Lisa "Left Eye" Lopes and Andre Rison; Faith Evans and Notorious B.I.G.; and Anna Nicole Smith and Larry Birkhead are the featured topics.

[12/12/19 - 01:01 PM]
IFC's "Brockmire" Swings for the Fences in Its Fourth and Final Season Premiering in March 2020
Returning for the series' final season are Amanda Peet, Tyrel Jackson Williams and Katie Finneran.

[12/12/19 - 12:55 PM]
HBO Documentary Films Acquires David France's "Welcome to Chechnya" Ahead of Its World Premiere at the 2020 Sundance Film Festival
This searing documentary shadows a group of brave activists risking their lives to confront the ongoing anti-LGBTQ persecution in the repressive and closed Russian republic of Chechnya.

[12/12/19 - 12:29 PM]
USA Network Reveals Premiere Dates for Rosario Dawson Led Anthology Series "Briarpatch" and New Story of Critically-Acclaimed Series "The Sinner"
Look for both series back-to-back beginning Thursday, February 6 at 9:00/8:00c.

[12/12/19 - 12:26 PM]
Walt Disney Television Renews "Tamron Hall" for a Second Season
"As one of the highest-rated new talk shows in five years, 'Tamron Hall' is connecting with audiences in such a powerful and unique way, and we are thrilled to build on that momentum with a second season," said Karey Burke.

[12/12/19 - 11:54 AM]
HGTV Picks Up a New Season of "Flip or Flop" with Christina Anstead and Tarek El Moussa
The season finale will air on Thursday, December 12, with the new episodes slated to premiere in August 2020.

[12/12/19 - 11:12 AM]
Bravo's "Top Chef" Returns with All Stars LA Premiering Thursday, March 19 at 10 PM ET/PT
All Stars LA features the fiercest group of competitors the show has seen with 15 finalists, front runners and fan favorites from seasons past who have all returned to finish what they started and battle it out for the coveted title.

[12/12/19 - 11:00 AM]
New HBO Drama Series "The Outsider" Debuts January 12
The 10-episode series follows police detective Ralph Anderson (Ben Mendelsohn), as he sets out to investigate the mutilated body of 11-year-old Frankie Peterson found in the Georgia woods.

[12/12/19 - 11:00 AM]
CBS Announces the First Four Episodes of the Ninth Season of "Undercover Boss," Beginning Wednesday, Jan. 8
The companies, in order of their air dates, are Walk-On's Bistreaux & Bar, Anytime Fitness, Dippin' Dots and Clean Harbors.

[12/12/19 - 10:47 AM]
Showtime(R) to Air the Television Premiere of "Pavarotti" from Academy Award(R)-Winning Director Ron Howard
Featuring Pavarotti's iconic performances and never-before-seen footage, the film is an intimate portrait of the most beloved opera singer of all time.

[12/12/19 - 10:29 AM]
CBS All Access' True-Crime Series "Interrogation" to Premiere Thursday, Feb. 6
With all episodes dropping at once, viewers will see the day of the crime and then follow the evidence like a cold case detective, abandon the linear narrative and determine their own investigative path by watching the episodes leading up to the finale in any order.

[12/12/19 - 10:22 AM]
Ovation TV Sets Premiere Date for a Lucky 13th Season of "Murdoch Mysteries"; Celebrates 200th Episode Mid-Season
Airing back to back episodes all season long, the 13th season premiere will air on Ovation starting Saturday, February 1.

[12/12/19 - 10:18 AM]
Video: BBC America Releases Trailer for "Seven Worlds, One Planet"
The seven-part series marks the first time BBC Studio's Natural History Unit has explored all the planet's continents in a single series.

[12/12/19 - 10:11 AM]
"The Paley Center Salutes Law & Order: SVU" Celebrates TV's Longest-Running Drama
Look for the one-hour special on Thursday, January 2 at 9:00/8:00c.