or


[09/24/12 - 04:17 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 1: Only 32% of Network Shows Make It to a Second Season
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

1. Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.

In the past 13 seasons (that's 1999-2000 through 2011-2012), 892 new primetime series have launched on the major broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC and The CW). Of those, just 288 made it to a second season. That's a 32% survival rate. Don't believe us? Check out the hard data:


seasonabccbsfoxnbcupnwbcwtotal
1999-20003/12 (25%)6/12 (50%)2/12 (17%)5/15 (33%)1/7 (14%)5/10 (50%)22/68 (32%)
2000-20015/12 (42%)4/10 (40%)4/12 (33%)5/17 (29%)2/8 (25%)3/7 (43%)23/66 (35%)
2001-20024/16 (25%)4/11 (36%)5/17 (29%)7/15 (47%)2/5 (40%)4/11 (36%)26/75 (35%)
2002-20037/21 (33%)5/12 (42%)4/17 (24%)8/17 (47%)2/6 (33%)5/13 (38%)31/86 (36%)
2003-20042/17 (12%)4/8 (50%)7/22 (32%)3/11 (27%)2/9 (22%)4/11 (36%)22/78 (28%)
2004-20059/21 (43%)3/11 (27%)6/17 (35%)6/20 (30%)2/8 (25%)2/7 (29%)28/84 (33%)
2005-20062/17 (12%)6/12 (50%)4/11 (36%)3/16 (19%)1/5 (20%)1/8 (13%)17/69 (25%)
2006-20077/27 (26%)4/10 (40%)3/14 (21%)6/17 (35%)2/4 (50%)22/72 (31%)
2007-20089/21 (43%)3/11 (27%)3/11 (27%)4/15 (27%)2/8 (25%)21/66 (32%)
2008-20096/17 (35%)2/8 (25%)5/10 (50%)3/17 (18%)1/8 (13%)17/60 (28%)
2009-20108/20 (40%)4/8 (50%)4/8 (50%)6/13 (46%)2/8 (25%)24/57 (42%)
2010-20113/16 (19%)3/10 (30%)3/10 (30%)3/17 (18%)1/3 (33%)13/56 (23%)
2011-2012*6/14 (43%)3/7 (43%)4/11 (36%)7/17 (41%)2/6 (33%)22/55 (40%)
total71/231 (31%)51/130 (39%)54/172 (31%)66/207 (32%)12/48 (25%)24/67 (36%)10/37 (27%)288/892 (32%)

* does not include this summer's 15 newcomers as many of those fates are still in the air


That 32% survival rate is surprisingly universal as ABC, FOX and NBC are all on that baseline while CBS (39%) and The CW (27%) teeter on the opposite ends of the spectrum. We can also observe that no network has ever had better than a 50% survival rate in any given season. Likewise, we've seen both the worst (23% in 2010-2011) and the best (42% in 2009-2010) survival rates come to pass in recent years. (This past season's 40% rate will likely fall between 32%-35% once this summer's 15 newcomers are factored in.)

The takeaway here is this: with 47 series (and counting) due to premiere during the 2012-2013 season, history shows that only 15 will likely make it to a second season. So brace yourself, chances are the majority of the new shows you've added to your viewing schedule won't be back this time next year.

TOMORROW: Do shows that launch in September have a better chance of survival than any other month?





  [september 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
      


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)









[04/20/14 - 09:17 AM]
Saturday's Broadcast Ratings: ABC, "Ten Commandments" Top Easter Weekend
The Alphabet leads the night in both total viewers and adults 18-49.

[04/20/14 - 08:50 AM]
"Dateline Saturday Night Mystery" Matches NBC's Highest Adult 18-49 Rating in Its Slot, Excluding Sports, in 19 Months
NBC spins the numbers for Saturday, April 19.

[04/19/14 - 09:02 AM]
Friday's Broadcast Ratings: ABC Tops Demos with "Shark Tank," "20/20"
The Alphabet's veteran newsmagazine posts big gains from last week among adults 18-49.

[04/19/14 - 08:34 AM]
"Hannibal" Is Up 29% Week to Week in Adults 18-49 with Its Top Result in Three Weeks
NBC spins the numbers for Friday, April 18.

[04/19/14 - 08:32 AM]
ABC Wins 3rd Straight Friday with the Top 2 TV Shows - "20/20" Surges to 2nd-Highest Ratings This Season
ABC spins the numbers for Friday, April 18.

[04/18/14 - 03:21 PM]
ESPN NFL Programming Highlights - "Draft Academy" Debuts April 22
Projected first-round picks Blake Bortles, Jadeveon Clowney and Marqise Lee will be part of the four-week series.

[04/18/14 - 12:09 PM]
First Lady Michelle Obama and Kellie Pickler Guest Star on "Nashville"
Said installment revolves around a charity concert at Fort Campbell.

[04/18/14 - 11:25 AM]
"Saturday Night Live" to Celebrate 40th Anniversary on Feb. 15, 2015
Past and present cast members, as well as special and musical guests from the show's incredible five-decade run, will appear on the telecast, with the specific lineup of guests to be determined in the coming months.

[04/18/14 - 10:56 AM]
New truTV Series "The Carbonaro Effect," Starring Comic Magician Michael Carbonaro, Set To Premiere Thursday, May 15th at 10pm ET/PT
The new 12-episode and hilarious series follows Carbonaro as he tricks, amazes and amuses the unsuspecting public.

[04/18/14 - 10:21 AM]
TLC Stitches Up Season Two, And Says I Do to More "Something Borrowed, Something New"
Season three, currently scheduled to premiere in November, promises to deliver more tears shed over old shredded threads.

[04/18/14 - 10:13 AM]
Video: "The Normal Heart" - Trailer (HBO Films)
The trailer will air this Sunday, April 20 just before "Game of Thrones" at 9:00/8:00c.

[04/18/14 - 10:02 AM]
Ariana Grande, Austin Mahone, Becky G, Zendaya, R5 and Fifth Harmony to Perform at the 2014 Radio Disney Music Awards
"Disney Channel Presents The Radio Disney Music Awards," a television special originating from the event, will be presented Sunday, April 27 on Disney Channel.

[04/18/14 - 09:32 AM]
Syfy's Hit Competition Series "Face Off" to Return for 7th Season in July
Season 7 will also introduce new judge, Lois Burwell, a renowned Academy-Award winning makeup artist known for her work on Lincoln, Braveheart, Saving Private Ryan, War Horse and War of the Worlds.

[04/18/14 - 09:30 AM]
Shakira to Sing "Empire" from New Self-Titled Album on Live Tuesday, April 22 Telecast of "The Voice"
In addition to the Grammy Award-winning Shakira, "The Voice" coaches Adam Levine and Blake Shelton will perform a song with their respective teams on the April 22 telecast.

[04/18/14 - 08:43 AM]
"Jimmy Kimmel Live" Scores Its Best-Ever Numbers at 11:35 p.m.
ABC spins the late-night numbers for Thursday, April 17.