or


[09/25/12 - 04:41 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 2: Shows That Premiere in September Have the Best Chance of Survival
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

2. Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.

Of the 892 shows that have premiered in the past 13 seasons (that's 1999-2000 through 2011-2012), 257 (or 29%) made their debuts in September - by far and away the most active month during the television season. It's also the most effective launching pad as of those 257 shows, 99 (or 39%) made it to second seasons - a full seven points ahead of the overall 32% survival rate we discussed yesterday.

The second most active month: March, with 116 series rolling out in the past 13 seasons. Here however the pendulum swings the other way as of those 116, just 33 (or 28%) made it to second seasons - four points below the usual 32% survival rate. The worst month historically to launch a series: a tie between May and August at a dismal 20% survival rate.

Here's the complete breakdown:


seasonabccbsfoxnbcupnwbcwtotal
jan.5/19 (26%)3/14 (21%)11/22 (50%)6/19 (32%)0/5 (0%)4/6 (67%)1/3 (33%)30/88 (34%)
feb.2/6 (33%)2/9 (22%)3/6 (50%)5/15 (33%)1/2 (50%)0/0 (0%)0/1 (0%)13/39 (33%)
mar.15/36 (42%)3/7 (43%)6/29 (21%)8/26 (31%)0/6 (0%)0/9 (0%)1/3 (33%)33/116 (28%)
apr.5/12 (42%)1/7 (14%)3/6 (50%)4/11 (36%)1/5 (20%)1/4 (25%)1/2 (50%)16/47 (34%)
may1/7 (14%)1/3 (33%)2/6 (33%)0/2 (0%)1/3 (33%)0/2 (0%)0/2 (0%)5/25 (20%)
jun.4/29 (14%)1/7 (14%)2/13 (15%)9/28 (32%)0/0 (0%)2/3 (67%)0/0 (0%)18/80 (23%)
jul.2/10 (20%)3/7 (43%)5/14 (36%)5/12 (42%)0/2 (0%)3/5 (60%)0/1 (0%)18/51 (35%)
aug.5/18 (28%)1/2 (50%)2/11 (18%)0/7 (0%)1/4 (25%)0/1 (0%)0/1 (0%)9/44 (20%)
sep.19/51 (37%)31/58 (53%)10/37 (27%)18/57 (32%)8/18 (44%)7/20 (35%)6/16 (38%)99/257 (39%)
oct.9/27 (33%)5/15 (33%)3/12 (25%)8/19 (42%)0/3 (0%)7/16 (44%)1/7 (14%)33/99 (33%)
nov.1/10 (10%)0/1 (0%)5/13 (38%)1/3 (33%)0/0 (0%)0/0 (0%)0/0 (0%)7/27 (26%)
dec.3/6 (50%)0/0 (0%)2/3 (67%)2/8 (25%)0/0 (0%)0/1 (0%)0/1 (0%)7/19 (37%)
total71/231 (31%)51/130 (39%)54/172 (31%)66/207 (32%)12/48 (25%)24/67 (36%)10/37 (27%)288/892 (32%)


So what does the above really tell us? The obvious answer is that it affirms what you'd likely guess on your own: since September is the traditional start of the television season, it has the highest level of promotion and awareness of any month, which presumably translates into a greater chance for shows to catch on. Conversely, May and August seem less apt for success as far less shows are launched during the summer months. But it's not that simple: July (35%) and December (37%) also have above average survival rates while October (33%) quickly sinks from September's top rate of 39%.

More telling then are the monthly rates for the networks themselves. FOX for instance frequently gets piled on for not showing up in the fall and rebounding in January when "American Idol" returns. The evidence supports that: FOX has the worst September survival rate of the broadcast networks (27%) but the best January survival rate at 50% (excluding the defunct WB). CBS conversely is dominant in September at 53% but shrinks to 21% in January. Straddling the middle: NBC with a 32% survival rate in both months.

Ultimately when all is said and done, if a show launches in September it has a slightly better chance to make the cut for a second season.

PREVIOUSLY: Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.

TOMORROW: Do reality or scripted shows have the best chance of survival?





  [september 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
      


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[01/22/18 - 01:46 PM]
Nat Geo WILD Kicks Off Safari Live Weeklong Event on Super Bowl Sunday
Tune in to experience thrilling nightly safaris from Africa's most remarkable wildlife destinations.

[01/22/18 - 12:01 PM]
Natalie Portman Set to Host "Saturday Night Live" on Feb. 3 with Musical Guest Dua Lipa
Pop artist Dua Lipa will join Portman as musical guest for the first time.

[01/22/18 - 10:31 AM]
"American Ninja Warrior: USA vs. The World" and "Timeless" Season Two Premiere Jumpstart Sunday Night Family Viewing Beginning March 11
"Timeless" will then regularly air on Sunday nights following "Little Big Shots" and "Genius Junior."

[01/22/18 - 09:46 AM]
Starz Acquires Unscripted Docuseries "America to Me" from Acclaimed Filmmaker Steve James and Participant Media
The series follows students, teachers and administrators in suburban Chicago's Oak Park and River Forest High School, one of the country's most exemplary and diverse public schools.

[01/22/18 - 08:38 AM]
Food Network Takes Game Day Eats Live
Food Network will go live Saturday, February 3, with a cross-platform Game Day Eats experience, offering game day recipes, tips and inspiration across the brand's linear, digital and convergent properties.

[01/22/18 - 08:32 AM]
SundanceTV Continues Its Exploration of True Crime by Partnering with Award-Winning Talent and Greenlighting Three New Docuseries
The first of these docuseries, "The Road to Jonestown" (w/t), will air timed to the 40th Anniversary of the massacre this November.

[01/22/18 - 08:31 AM]
Sunday's Broadcast Ratings: FOX Dominates with NFC Championship
The Eagles/Vikings blowout is not surprisingly down from last year's primetime championship on CBS.

[01/22/18 - 08:19 AM]
30 for 30 "The Two Bills" to Premiere February 1 on ESPN
The next documentary features legendary football coaches Bill Belichick and Bill Parcells being interviewed together for the first time since 1991.

[01/22/18 - 07:47 AM]
First Season of "The Alienist" to Premiere on Netflix on April 19th
All 10 episodes will be available at once for members around the world.

[01/22/18 - 07:03 AM]
EPIX(R) Original Documentary, "This Is Home: A Refugee Story," to Air in 2018 Following World Premiere at Sundance Film Festival
Directed by Alexandra Shiva and produced by Blumhouse and Gidalya Pictures, the film is an intimate portrait of four Syrian refugee families arriving in America and struggling to find their footing.

[01/22/18 - 06:30 AM]
Disney Junior Sinks Its Teeth Into a Second Season of "Vampirina"
An out-of-the-gate hit for kids and families, the October 1 simulcast premiere of "Vampirina" on Disney Channel and Disney Junior ranked as the preschooler platform's highest-rated new series premiere.

[01/22/18 - 05:04 AM]
ION Television's New Original Series, "Private Eyes," Premieres Sunday, February 11
The Jason Priestley-led drama will air each Sunday night with back-to-back new episodes.

[01/22/18 - 01:57 AM]
"First Team: Juventus FC" Coming to Netflix on February 16th
Netflix will follow the most compelling stories and characters in the club during the 2017-2018 season.

[01/21/18 - 09:04 AM]
Saturday's Broadcast Ratings: NBA Primetime Return Puts ABC on Top
The Alphabet wins the evening among adults 18-49.

[01/20/18 - 08:35 AM]
Friday's Broadcast Ratings: CBS Keeps Top Spot in Viewers, Demos
"MacGyver" and "Hawaii Five-0" lead the night in adults 18-49, while "Blue Bloods" is the most-watched program.