or


[09/25/12 - 04:41 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 2: Shows That Premiere in September Have the Best Chance of Survival
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

2. Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.

Of the 892 shows that have premiered in the past 13 seasons (that's 1999-2000 through 2011-2012), 257 (or 29%) made their debuts in September - by far and away the most active month during the television season. It's also the most effective launching pad as of those 257 shows, 99 (or 39%) made it to second seasons - a full seven points ahead of the overall 32% survival rate we discussed yesterday.

The second most active month: March, with 116 series rolling out in the past 13 seasons. Here however the pendulum swings the other way as of those 116, just 33 (or 28%) made it to second seasons - four points below the usual 32% survival rate. The worst month historically to launch a series: a tie between May and August at a dismal 20% survival rate.

Here's the complete breakdown:


seasonabccbsfoxnbcupnwbcwtotal
jan.5/19 (26%)3/14 (21%)11/22 (50%)6/19 (32%)0/5 (0%)4/6 (67%)1/3 (33%)30/88 (34%)
feb.2/6 (33%)2/9 (22%)3/6 (50%)5/15 (33%)1/2 (50%)0/0 (0%)0/1 (0%)13/39 (33%)
mar.15/36 (42%)3/7 (43%)6/29 (21%)8/26 (31%)0/6 (0%)0/9 (0%)1/3 (33%)33/116 (28%)
apr.5/12 (42%)1/7 (14%)3/6 (50%)4/11 (36%)1/5 (20%)1/4 (25%)1/2 (50%)16/47 (34%)
may1/7 (14%)1/3 (33%)2/6 (33%)0/2 (0%)1/3 (33%)0/2 (0%)0/2 (0%)5/25 (20%)
jun.4/29 (14%)1/7 (14%)2/13 (15%)9/28 (32%)0/0 (0%)2/3 (67%)0/0 (0%)18/80 (23%)
jul.2/10 (20%)3/7 (43%)5/14 (36%)5/12 (42%)0/2 (0%)3/5 (60%)0/1 (0%)18/51 (35%)
aug.5/18 (28%)1/2 (50%)2/11 (18%)0/7 (0%)1/4 (25%)0/1 (0%)0/1 (0%)9/44 (20%)
sep.19/51 (37%)31/58 (53%)10/37 (27%)18/57 (32%)8/18 (44%)7/20 (35%)6/16 (38%)99/257 (39%)
oct.9/27 (33%)5/15 (33%)3/12 (25%)8/19 (42%)0/3 (0%)7/16 (44%)1/7 (14%)33/99 (33%)
nov.1/10 (10%)0/1 (0%)5/13 (38%)1/3 (33%)0/0 (0%)0/0 (0%)0/0 (0%)7/27 (26%)
dec.3/6 (50%)0/0 (0%)2/3 (67%)2/8 (25%)0/0 (0%)0/1 (0%)0/1 (0%)7/19 (37%)
total71/231 (31%)51/130 (39%)54/172 (31%)66/207 (32%)12/48 (25%)24/67 (36%)10/37 (27%)288/892 (32%)


So what does the above really tell us? The obvious answer is that it affirms what you'd likely guess on your own: since September is the traditional start of the television season, it has the highest level of promotion and awareness of any month, which presumably translates into a greater chance for shows to catch on. Conversely, May and August seem less apt for success as far less shows are launched during the summer months. But it's not that simple: July (35%) and December (37%) also have above average survival rates while October (33%) quickly sinks from September's top rate of 39%.

More telling then are the monthly rates for the networks themselves. FOX for instance frequently gets piled on for not showing up in the fall and rebounding in January when "American Idol" returns. The evidence supports that: FOX has the worst September survival rate of the broadcast networks (27%) but the best January survival rate at 50% (excluding the defunct WB). CBS conversely is dominant in September at 53% but shrinks to 21% in January. Straddling the middle: NBC with a 32% survival rate in both months.

Ultimately when all is said and done, if a show launches in September it has a slightly better chance to make the cut for a second season.

PREVIOUSLY: Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.

TOMORROW: Do reality or scripted shows have the best chance of survival?





  [september 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
      


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[01/19/17 - 02:15 PM]
History's "Six" Opens Strong with 2.6 Million Total Viewers
History spins the numbers for Wednesday, January 18.

[01/19/17 - 01:18 PM]
Amazon Original Series "Sneaky Pete" Renewed for Season Two
The series was the second most streamed original scripted series on an opening day, behind "The Man in the High Castle."

[01/19/17 - 12:29 PM]
Catch Up with Past MVPs in "Puppy Bowl: Where Are They Now?" New Date - Friday, January 27
The one-hour special was previously slated to air tomorrow night on the cable channel.

[01/19/17 - 11:52 AM]
Food Network Orders Seconds of "Ginormous Food"
The series features comedian and food fanatic Josh Denny as he travels the country tasting the greatest and biggest dishes, while learning about the amazing stories and people behind them.

[01/19/17 - 11:46 AM]
A&E Network's Emmy-Nominated Series "Cold Case Files" Gets a Reboot Narrated by Danny Glover
The return of "Cold Case Files" will explore compelling new cases that have gone cold for years and chronicle the journeys of the detectives who reopened them.

[01/19/17 - 11:02 AM]
New Series "Tough Mudder: The Challenge Within" to Debut on CW Seed on Thursday, Feb. 2
The finale will premiere as a one-hour broadcast special event on The CW, Tuesday, February 14.

[01/19/17 - 10:42 AM]
Discovery's New Survival Series "The Wheel" Delivers Cable's Best Friday Launch Since 2015
Discovery further spins the numbers for Friday, January 13.

[01/19/17 - 10:01 AM]
Aspiring Gladiators Are Put to the Test in New Six-Part Digital Series "Scandal: Gladiator Wanted"
In the series, Huck (Guillermo Diaz), Quinn (Katie Lowes) and Marcus (Cornelius Smith Jr.) are tasked with finding an intern for Olivia Pope & Associates.

[01/19/17 - 09:31 AM]
Oscar(R)-Nominated Actor Stephen Rea and Emmy(R)-Award Winner Richard Schiff Cast as Guest Stars in Starz Spy Thriller "Counterpart" from MRC, Gilbert Films and Anonymous Content
J.K. Simmons stars as a lowly cog in a bureaucratic agency, who discovers that the agency he works for is really guarding a crossing into a parallel dimension.

[01/19/17 - 08:51 AM]
Wednesday's Broadcast Ratings: "Speechless" Tops Tight Demo Race for ABC
ABC, CBS, FOX and NBC all finish within a tenth of each other among adults 18-49.

[01/19/17 - 08:30 AM]
Jane Lynch Cast as Former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno in Discovery's Highly-Anticipated Scripted Series "Manifesto"
The series will tell the story of how FBI agent Jim "Fitz" Fitzgerald (Sam Worthington) deployed a radical approach to intelligence gathering to take down Ted Kaczynski (Paul Bettany), also known as the "Unabomber."

[01/19/17 - 08:27 AM]
MTV Brings the Laughs with All-New "Ridiculousness Fridays" Block Live with Rob Dyrdek Beginning January 20 at 8:00 PM ET/PT
Every Friday night MTV will air two all-new episodes of "Ridiculousness" during which, Rob and friends will be live in studio.

[01/19/17 - 08:01 AM]
On April 14, The World Meets Sandy Wexler, A Hollywood Icon
Adam Sandler stars in the Netflix original, about a talent manager working in Los Angeles in the 1990s who diligently represents a group of eccentric clients on the fringes of show business.

[01/19/17 - 06:49 AM]
Video: Netflix Releases First Clip from Casting JonBenet
Directed by Kitty Green, Casting JonBenet will have its world premiere on Sunday, January 22 at the 2017 Sundance Film Festival.

[01/19/17 - 06:30 AM]
CBS Announces "Grammy(R) Red Carpet Live," An Entertainment Special Hosted by "ET's" Nancy O'Dell and Kevin Frazier, to Be Broadcast Live Feb. 12 on CBS
Previously announced performers include John Legend, Metallica, Carrie Underwood and Keith Urban.