or


[09/25/12 - 04:41 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 2: Shows That Premiere in September Have the Best Chance of Survival
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

2. Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.

Of the 892 shows that have premiered in the past 13 seasons (that's 1999-2000 through 2011-2012), 257 (or 29%) made their debuts in September - by far and away the most active month during the television season. It's also the most effective launching pad as of those 257 shows, 99 (or 39%) made it to second seasons - a full seven points ahead of the overall 32% survival rate we discussed yesterday.

The second most active month: March, with 116 series rolling out in the past 13 seasons. Here however the pendulum swings the other way as of those 116, just 33 (or 28%) made it to second seasons - four points below the usual 32% survival rate. The worst month historically to launch a series: a tie between May and August at a dismal 20% survival rate.

Here's the complete breakdown:


seasonabccbsfoxnbcupnwbcwtotal
jan.5/19 (26%)3/14 (21%)11/22 (50%)6/19 (32%)0/5 (0%)4/6 (67%)1/3 (33%)30/88 (34%)
feb.2/6 (33%)2/9 (22%)3/6 (50%)5/15 (33%)1/2 (50%)0/0 (0%)0/1 (0%)13/39 (33%)
mar.15/36 (42%)3/7 (43%)6/29 (21%)8/26 (31%)0/6 (0%)0/9 (0%)1/3 (33%)33/116 (28%)
apr.5/12 (42%)1/7 (14%)3/6 (50%)4/11 (36%)1/5 (20%)1/4 (25%)1/2 (50%)16/47 (34%)
may1/7 (14%)1/3 (33%)2/6 (33%)0/2 (0%)1/3 (33%)0/2 (0%)0/2 (0%)5/25 (20%)
jun.4/29 (14%)1/7 (14%)2/13 (15%)9/28 (32%)0/0 (0%)2/3 (67%)0/0 (0%)18/80 (23%)
jul.2/10 (20%)3/7 (43%)5/14 (36%)5/12 (42%)0/2 (0%)3/5 (60%)0/1 (0%)18/51 (35%)
aug.5/18 (28%)1/2 (50%)2/11 (18%)0/7 (0%)1/4 (25%)0/1 (0%)0/1 (0%)9/44 (20%)
sep.19/51 (37%)31/58 (53%)10/37 (27%)18/57 (32%)8/18 (44%)7/20 (35%)6/16 (38%)99/257 (39%)
oct.9/27 (33%)5/15 (33%)3/12 (25%)8/19 (42%)0/3 (0%)7/16 (44%)1/7 (14%)33/99 (33%)
nov.1/10 (10%)0/1 (0%)5/13 (38%)1/3 (33%)0/0 (0%)0/0 (0%)0/0 (0%)7/27 (26%)
dec.3/6 (50%)0/0 (0%)2/3 (67%)2/8 (25%)0/0 (0%)0/1 (0%)0/1 (0%)7/19 (37%)
total71/231 (31%)51/130 (39%)54/172 (31%)66/207 (32%)12/48 (25%)24/67 (36%)10/37 (27%)288/892 (32%)


So what does the above really tell us? The obvious answer is that it affirms what you'd likely guess on your own: since September is the traditional start of the television season, it has the highest level of promotion and awareness of any month, which presumably translates into a greater chance for shows to catch on. Conversely, May and August seem less apt for success as far less shows are launched during the summer months. But it's not that simple: July (35%) and December (37%) also have above average survival rates while October (33%) quickly sinks from September's top rate of 39%.

More telling then are the monthly rates for the networks themselves. FOX for instance frequently gets piled on for not showing up in the fall and rebounding in January when "American Idol" returns. The evidence supports that: FOX has the worst September survival rate of the broadcast networks (27%) but the best January survival rate at 50% (excluding the defunct WB). CBS conversely is dominant in September at 53% but shrinks to 21% in January. Straddling the middle: NBC with a 32% survival rate in both months.

Ultimately when all is said and done, if a show launches in September it has a slightly better chance to make the cut for a second season.

PREVIOUSLY: Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.

TOMORROW: Do reality or scripted shows have the best chance of survival?





  [september 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
      


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[04/19/18 - 03:15 PM]
CBS Replaces "Living Biblically" on Monday Nights with "Big Bang Theory" Repeats
The Eye indicates the freshman comedy will return to the schedule at a later date.

[04/19/18 - 02:06 PM]
Bravo Media's "The Real Housewives of Beverly Hills" Delivers an Epic Three-Part Reunion Beginning Tuesday, April 24 at 9PM ET/PT
Following the three-part reunion, the network will air a "Secrets Revealed" special on Tuesday, May 15, which will feature never-before-seen footage of "The Real Housewives of Beverly Hills."

[04/19/18 - 12:46 PM]
"For Our Lives: Parkland," The First-Ever Co-Production Between Freeform and ABC News' "Nightline," to Premiere Monday, April 30
The hour-long special will feature footage captured by ABC News reporters documenting several students as they turned their unimaginable grief and fear into action during the difficult weeks after the attack.

[04/19/18 - 12:02 PM]
"Food Network Star" Returns with New Cast of Hopefuls Competing for Culinary Greatness
Before the main competition gets started, Valerie Bertinelli and Tyler Florence return to co-host a new season of "Food Network Star: Comeback Kitchen," premiering on Sunday, May 27.

[04/19/18 - 12:00 PM]
Disney Channel - Packed and Ready to Go - Super-Serves Kids All Summer Long with Its Most-New Ever Daily Programming Schedule
Throughout the summer, Disney Channel will bring fans new programming, starting at 9:00 a.m. EDT/PDT on weekdays and 8:00 a.m. EDT/PDT on weekends.

[04/19/18 - 11:00 AM]
Tony and Emmy Award Winner Tyne Daly Joins the Cast of "Murphy Brown" When It Returns to CBS
Daly will play Phyllis, the sister of the beloved, deceased bar owner Phil from the original series, and it's evident that the apple doesn't fall far from the tree.

[04/19/18 - 10:32 AM]
Johnny Galecki's "SciJinks" Premiering Wednesday, May 16 on Science Channel
Galecki orchestrates a team of inventive scientists who use science to feed people's minds, and to mess with their heads.

[04/19/18 - 10:16 AM]
Paramount Network Announces Series Pickup for "First Wives Club"
A cast announcement will be made in the coming weeks.

[04/19/18 - 10:02 AM]
Sundance Now Acquires Critically-Acclaimed Scripted Comedy "Motherland" from Lionsgate
The critically-acclaimed series, written and created by Sharon Horgan, Holly Walsh, and Graham and Helen Linehan, will make its exclusive U.S. debut with the first two episodes premiering on the service Thursday, May 10.

[04/19/18 - 10:00 AM]
CBS All Access Original Series "Strange Angel" to Launch on Thursday, June 14
Based on George Pendle's book of the same name, the series is inspired by the real life story of Jack Parsons and explores the dramatic intersection between genius and madness, science and science fiction.

[04/19/18 - 09:33 AM]
ABC's "The Gong Show" Is Set to Return for Its Second Fabulous Season
Celebrated film and television actor/comedian Mike Myers stars as the show's host - British comedic legend Tommy Maitland.

[04/19/18 - 09:02 AM]
"Rellik" Episode Three Available to Stream Early
Immediately following the debut of episode two tomorrow night, episode three of the six-part limited series will be available to stream on MAX On Demand and MAX GO, as well as through partners' streaming platforms.

[04/19/18 - 09:01 AM]
Video: Trailer for Netflix Film "Anon" - Starring Clive Owen and Amanda Seyfried
Sal Frieland (Owen) is a detective in a world with no privacy, ignorance, or anonymity; where everyone's lives are transparent, traceable, and recorded by the authorities; where crime almost ceases to exist.

[04/19/18 - 08:51 AM]
The Astronomical Hunt for Treasure Continues in an All-New Season of Discovery Channel's "Cooper's Treasure"
Darrell Miklos, treasure hunter by trade and by birth, sets out once again to unearth sunken riches in an all-new season this summer.

[04/19/18 - 08:43 AM]
"1968," A Four-Part CNN Original Series Event, Debuts Sunday, May 27, at 9 P.M. ET
Tom Hanks, Gloria Steinem, Dan Rather and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. are among those interviewed.