 |
 |
[09/24/12 - 04:17 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 1: Only 32% of Network Shows Make It to a Second Season
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC) |
|
|
1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.
Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.
Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.
So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...
1. Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
In the past 13 seasons (that's 1999-2000 through 2011-2012), 892 new primetime series have launched on the major broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC and The CW). Of those, just 288 made it to a second season. That's a 32% survival rate. Don't believe us? Check out the hard data:
| season | abc | cbs | fox | nbc | upn | wb | cw | total |
| 1999-2000 | 3/12 (25%) | 6/12 (50%) | 2/12 (17%) | 5/15 (33%) | 1/7 (14%) | 5/10 (50%) | | 22/68 (32%) |
| 2000-2001 | 5/12 (42%) | 4/10 (40%) | 4/12 (33%) | 5/17 (29%) | 2/8 (25%) | 3/7 (43%) | | 23/66 (35%) |
| 2001-2002 | 4/16 (25%) | 4/11 (36%) | 5/17 (29%) | 7/15 (47%) | 2/5 (40%) | 4/11 (36%) | | 26/75 (35%) |
| 2002-2003 | 7/21 (33%) | 5/12 (42%) | 4/17 (24%) | 8/17 (47%) | 2/6 (33%) | 5/13 (38%) | | 31/86 (36%) |
| 2003-2004 | 2/17 (12%) | 4/8 (50%) | 7/22 (32%) | 3/11 (27%) | 2/9 (22%) | 4/11 (36%) | | 22/78 (28%) |
| 2004-2005 | 9/21 (43%) | 3/11 (27%) | 6/17 (35%) | 6/20 (30%) | 2/8 (25%) | 2/7 (29%) | | 28/84 (33%) |
| 2005-2006 | 2/17 (12%) | 6/12 (50%) | 4/11 (36%) | 3/16 (19%) | 1/5 (20%) | 1/8 (13%) | | 17/69 (25%) |
| 2006-2007 | 7/27 (26%) | 4/10 (40%) | 3/14 (21%) | 6/17 (35%) | | | 2/4 (50%) | 22/72 (31%) |
| 2007-2008 | 9/21 (43%) | 3/11 (27%) | 3/11 (27%) | 4/15 (27%) | | | 2/8 (25%) | 21/66 (32%) |
| 2008-2009 | 6/17 (35%) | 2/8 (25%) | 5/10 (50%) | 3/17 (18%) | | | 1/8 (13%) | 17/60 (28%) |
| 2009-2010 | 8/20 (40%) | 4/8 (50%) | 4/8 (50%) | 6/13 (46%) | | | 2/8 (25%) | 24/57 (42%) |
| 2010-2011 | 3/16 (19%) | 3/10 (30%) | 3/10 (30%) | 3/17 (18%) | | | 1/3 (33%) | 13/56 (23%) |
| 2011-2012* | 6/14 (43%) | 3/7 (43%) | 4/11 (36%) | 7/17 (41%) | | | 2/6 (33%) | 22/55 (40%) |
| total | 71/231 (31%) | 51/130 (39%) | 54/172 (31%) | 66/207 (32%) | 12/48 (25%) | 24/67 (36%) | 10/37 (27%) | 288/892 (32%) |
* does not include this summer's 15 newcomers as many of those fates are still in the air
That 32% survival rate is surprisingly universal as ABC, FOX and NBC are all on that baseline while CBS (39%) and The CW (27%) teeter on the opposite ends of the spectrum. We can also observe that no network has ever had better than a 50% survival rate in any given season. Likewise, we've seen both the worst (23% in 2010-2011) and the best (42% in 2009-2010) survival rates come to pass in recent years. (This past season's 40% rate will likely fall between 32%-35% once this summer's 15 newcomers are factored in.)
The takeaway here is this: with 47 series (and counting) due to premiere during the 2012-2013 season, history shows that only 15 will likely make it to a second season. So brace yourself, chances are the majority of the new shows you've added to your viewing schedule won't be back this time next year.
TOMORROW: Do shows that launch in September have a better chance of survival than any other month?
|
|
|
 [september 2012]  |
S |
M |
T |
W |
T |
F |
S |
| | | | | | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
 |
|
[11/12/25 - 12:02 PM]
"The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins" Anchors NBC's Midseason Lineup
The series, from creators Robert Carlock and Sam Means, will debut with a one-hour premiere on Monday, February 23 at 8 p.m. ET/PT before moving to its regular timeslot the following week on Monday, March 2 at 8:30 p.m.
|
[11/12/25 - 12:01 PM]
TLC Sets January Premiere Date for Three-Part Docuseries Unpacking Allegations Against "The Real Housewives of Salt Lake City" Star Mary Cosby and Her Church
"The Cult of the Real Housewife" will premiere Thursday, January 1 from 8-11PM ET/PT on TLC.
|
[11/12/25 - 12:01 PM]
Video: Trailer Debut - "Little Disasters" with Diane Kruger Premieres December 11 on Paramount+
The six-part psychological thriller adapted from the bestselling novel by Sarah Vaughan will premiere all episodes on Thursday, December 11, exclusively on Paramount+ in the U.S., Canada, GSA, Italy and Latin America.
|
[11/12/25 - 12:00 PM]
"The Family McMullen," Starring Edward Burns, Connie Britton, and Tracee Ellis Ross, Debuts December 5 on HBO Max
30 years after Edward Burns' "The Brothers McMullen" wowed critics and audiences with its exploration of the lives and struggles of three Irish American brothers from Long Island, New York, the family returns in the long-awaited follow-up.
|
[11/12/25 - 10:02 AM]
Season Two of the HBO Original Late-Night Comedy Series "It's Florida, Man." Debuts November 28
Featuring candid accounts from everyday Floridians playfully recreated by a rotating cast of actors and comedians, this hilarious and irreverent series sheds light on the viral, wacky, and weird. With equal parts humor and heart.
|
[11/12/25 - 10:01 AM]
Derek Hough to Host "The Wonderful World of Disney: Holiday Spectacular" Airing Monday, Dec. 1, on ABC and Next Day on Hulu and Disney+
Featured performers include Gwen Stefani, Nicole Scherzinger, Trisha Yearwood, and more.
|
[11/12/25 - 09:31 AM]
Netflix Announces Michelle Monaghan Is Hitting the Ice in a New Hockey Series
For the town of South Dorothy, Minnesota, hockey is everything - until a tragic loss knocks the legs out from under the high school's legendary team.
|
[11/12/25 - 08:54 AM]
Here's Your First Look at "Living the Dream": A New Netflix Animated Workplace Sitcom from George Gendi and Hanna-Barbera Studios Europe
Starring George Gendi, Javone Prince, Julia Davis, Tom Stourton, Ellie White, Ambika Mod, Chris Diamontopoulos, Stavros Halkias, and more.
|
[11/12/25 - 08:51 AM]
TNT Sports Announces Start Times for 2026 NASCAR In-Season Challenge Races, Starting on Sunday, June 28
Highlights of the In-Season Challenge include three Sunday races under the lights.
|
[11/12/25 - 08:31 AM]
Video: "Masaka Kids, A Rhythm Within" - Official Trailer - Netflix
In this joyful short documentary, children at a Ugandan orphanage find healing, spread hope and achieve global acclaim - one viral dance video at a time.
|
[11/12/25 - 08:27 AM]
ABC Scores Top Game of the Week for the 10th Straight Week; "College GameDay" Posts Week 11 Growth and Record Season Rolls On
LSU-Alabama (7.5 million viewers) was the most-watched game of the week, followed by Texas A&M-Missouri (4.9 million) and BYU-Texas Tech (4.0 million) among the top five.
|
[11/12/25 - 08:05 AM]
Roku Originals Huddles Up with Eva Longoria, Skydance Sports, NFL Films, Alfred Street Industries, and Hyphenate Media Group for New Series "NFL Hometown Eats" (wt)
The three-part series will kick off with executive producer Eva Longoria alongside an NFL player from her favorite football team, the Dallas Cowboys.
|
[11/12/25 - 07:31 AM]
Video: Apple TV Debuts Trailer for the Final Installment of "WondLa"
Hailing from Skydance Animation and based on Tony DiTerlizzi's New York Times bestselling book series "The Search for WondLa," the series is showrun and executive produced by Bobs Gannaway.
|
[11/12/25 - 07:11 AM]
"USA Sports" Announced as New Brand and Division Name for Versant's Sports Portfolio
In total, USA Sports will present more than 10,000 hours of event, studio, and original sports programming across USA Network, Golf Channel, and CNBC in 2026.
|
[11/12/25 - 07:01 AM]
Video: "Tell Me Softly" (Dimelo Bajito) - Official Trailer - Prime Video
The Di Bianco brothers are back and nothing will ever be the same.
|
|
|
|
